đ¨ 24 HOURS. TWO EVENTS. ONE MARKET RESET. đ¨
Friday, Jan 9, 2026 could be a real inflection point.
Markets are entering a narrow window where sentiment can flip fast â stocks, bonds, and the dollar all at risk.
Whatâs driving the tape đ
â° 1) U.S. Jobs Data â 8:30 AM ET
December Non-Farm Payrolls hit first.
Expectations are already low (~70K jobs), which makes any surprise explosive.
⢠Miss â Growth fears return, rate-cut bets surge
⢠Beat â Fed stays restrictive, risk assets feel pressure
This print alone can set the dayâs direction in minutes.
âď¸ 2) Supreme Court Tariff Verdict
The headline risk markets canât fully price.
The ruling on emergency tariff powers has direct inflation and policy impact.
⢠Tariffs stay â Inflation pressure lingers, USD stays firm
⢠Tariffs removed â Equities bounce, fast repricing across rates
Macro expectations hinge on this decision.
đ Market Setup
With the S&P 500 near 6,920, price action is tightly compressed.
Compression usually ends one way:
Expansion â either higher⌠or violently lower.
â ď¸ Volatility window opening
â ď¸ Positioning > conviction
Are you defensive â or leaning into the move?