Bitcoin appears to have broken its long-standing sync with global money supply, and a prominent crypto analyst says the reason could be an unexpected one: the looming threat of quantum computers. What changed Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted in a post on X a chart comparing year-over-year (YoY) percentage changes in BTC to the YoY change in global M2 (broad money supply across major economies). Historically the two metrics tracked closely, but in 2025 Bitcoin’s YoY growth flatlined while global M2 continued to expand — a divergence Edwards calls unprecedented. “This is the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from money supply and global liquidity flows,” he wrote. Why Edwards thinks this is happening Edwards argues the break in correlation reflects a new risk calculus among investors: the possibility that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could one day defeat Bitcoin’s cryptography. Early, dormant wallets are thought to be especially vulnerable; if a quantum attacker were able to access and liquidate those holdings, it could both depress BTC’s price and damage confidence in the network. Edwards says Bitcoin crossed a “Quantum Event Horizon” in 2025. In his words: “The timeframe to a non-zero probability of a quantum machine breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography is now less than the estimated time it will take to upgrade Bitcoin.” As a result, he suggests, “money is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly.” Pushback and response Not everyone on X agrees with Edwards’ timeline or its market implications. One user argued that most investors don’t seem to share this view and that markets are unlikely to decouple on an opinion not widely held. Edwards pushed back, saying that private, experienced market participants take the risk seriously: “If you talk to real capital allocators and Bitcoin OGs in the space 7+ years in private – they are all considering this risk.” Market context: ETFs and price Separately, demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs has shown weakness recently. Data from SoSoValue cited by Edwards shows $681 million in outflows from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs last week. The new week has begun with some inflows, but it’s unclear whether that will persist. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $92,100, up nearly 2% over the past 24 hours. Bottom line Whether quantum risk is already reshaping capital flows or the divergence is temporary remains an open question. Edwards’ analysis spotlights a nontraditional factor — technological risk — that some market participants say is shifting how money is allocated around Bitcoin. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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