đš A warning worth slowing down for â not a headline to chase
This is not a typical market cycle. $DUSK
Recent Federal Reserve actions suggest stress is building beneath the surface â quietly, but materially. $AXS
Balance sheet changes point to stabilization mechanics, not growth fuel:
âą +$105B total balance sheet expansion $BERA
âą +$74.6B via the Standing Repo Facility
âą +$43.1B in MBS purchases
âą Only +$31.5B in Treasuries
This is not bullish QE đ„¶
Itâs targeted liquidity meant to relieve funding pressure.
When the Fed absorbs more MBS than Treasuries, itâs usually a signal that collateral quality is degrading. That doesnât happen in healthy environments â it shows up when stress becomes systemic.
The risk here isnât immediate collapse.
Itâs misinterpretation.
Most participants wonât notice these signals until volatility forces the lesson. Markets donât break loudly at first â they destabilize quietly, then reprice fast.
This phase isnât about fear.
Itâs about context, positioning, and respect for structure.
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