If Trump Turns the World upside Down

If Trump “turns the world upside down” again, crypto usually doesn’t wait for policy to become reality — it reacts to headlines, odds, and tone first, then reprices again once the actual rules hit.

We’ve already seen the playbook: one political shock can flip risk sentiment in hours. On July 15, 2024, after the assassination attempt, Bitcoin jumped as markets interpreted higher election odds and a more crypto-friendly stance as bullish momentum.  Then, when policy and executive messaging arrive, the “narrative premium” can expand: on March 6, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to create a federal Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (plus a separate digital asset stockpile), which reinforces the “BTC = national strategic asset” story.  And on the flip side, sudden geopolitical/tariff headlines can hit confidence fast — for example Jan 13, 2026 reporting tied a BTC pullback to a Trump tariff announcement, showing how quickly macro headlines can shake price even in a bull context. 

Now the ETH vs BTC comparison in a “Trump-driven market” is usually about what the market thinks he can influence most:

BTC tends to react like a macro barometer + political “option”: election probability shifts, “risk-on/risk-off” tone, and big policy symbolism can move it hard and fast (sometimes upward on “pro-crypto” expectations, sometimes downward on tariff/macro stress).  ETH often trades more “policy-sensitive” in a different way: it’s heavily tied to the regulatory framework narrative (what’s a security vs commodity, market structure bills, etc.) and big product-flow headlines (ETF structures, custody, institutional rails). In 2025–2026, that’s why legislation updates and ETF-related headlines can become catalysts for ETH alongside BTC, but ETH can also get whipsawed more by “how will this be regulated?” vibes. 

What people mean by “he controls the market” is really “he controls the temperature”: during his time in office, studies found Trump’s tweets were followed by higher uncertainty and trading activity (market participants front-run the

If the next cycle looks like this again, watch for the sequence: headline shock → volatility spike → “policy narrative” bid (BTC usually first) → “regulatory clarity” bid (ETH often benefits when rules/products feel clearer) → then a second repricing once the actual policy details drop.