Bitcoin has rebounded strongly in early 2026, rising nearly 7% year to date and trading above $93,000 after breaking last year’s lows. The rally has lifted the broader crypto market and brought Bitcoin back toward key resistance levels seen since November.

According to NYDIG Research and market maker Wintermute, the price recovery is being driven by a combination of geopolitical risk, improving macro conditions, and structural changes in how capital flows through the crypto market. Political tensions in the U.S., particularly pressure on the Federal Reserve and concerns over monetary policy independence, have increased demand for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign, fixed-supply asset. At the same time, global money supply has reached record highs, and while precious metals surged earlier, Bitcoin appears to be catching up as an alternative store of value.

The market has also benefited from the clearing of temporary selling pressures, including tax-loss selling at year-end and the unwinding of forced liquidations from late 2025. Meanwhile, Wintermute argues that the traditional four-year halving cycle may be losing relevance, with 2025 marking a transition away from speculative boom-and-bust dynamics toward a more mature market structure.

A key structural shift is the rise of institutional products such as ETFs and digital asset trusts. These vehicles have concentrated capital in a small number of large-cap assets, weakening the traditional rotation of gains from Bitcoin into altcoins. As a result, altcoin rallies have been shorter and more fragmented, while retail investors have largely shifted their attention to equity markets.

Wintermute identifies three main catalysts that could drive prices higher in 2026: broader institutional exposure beyond Bitcoin and ether through new ETFs, a renewed wealth effect from strong BTC or ETH performance spilling into altcoins, and a return of retail investors from equities into crypto. The extent of the next rally will depend on whether liquidity broadens across the market or remains concentrated in a handful of large-cap assets.