Cryptocurrency markets go through cycles of up and down trends. These cycles last about four years and link to Bitcoin halving events. In bull runs, prices rise fast due to more demand. Many investors hope to make big money in these times, but not everyone succeeds even when the market goes up. Recent data from 2024 and 2025 show slower gains than past cycles and this happens because institutions now play a bigger role.
Why Many Missed Gains in 2024
In the 2024 bull run, Bitcoin rose but gains were smaller than before. After the April 2024 halving, prices increased only about 100% by late 2025. Past cycles had much bigger jumps and many retail investors did not make much money. They faced less euphoria and more steady growth. Institutions bought in slowly through ETFs. This changed the fast retail driven rallies of earlier years. Retail investors often waited too long or sold early.
Behavioral Biases Hurt Performance
Investor emotions cause poor choices in crypto.
Fear of missing out pushes people to buy high.
Loss aversion makes them hold losing coins too long.
Herding leads to following crowds without thought.
These biases make investors buy late in bull runs and sell in fear during dips. Studies show younger people and past crypto owners show more bias. They often pick suboptimal options. This explains why many fail to build wealth even in rising markets.
Poor Timing and Entry Issues
Timing matters a lot in crypto cycles. Early buyers in recovery phases get the best returns. Late buyers enter at high prices and risk big drops. Many miss the start due to doubt after bear markets. They join during hype near tops. Data from 2024 shows low retail activity at lows. People scarred by 2022 crash stayed out. This led to missed gains when prices rose. Good timing needs discipline over emotion.
Lack of Risk Management
Many investors do not plan exits or manage risks. They hold without taking profits. Over leverage causes big losses in corrections. No diversification leaves them open to full market drops. In bull runs, greed stops selling at strength and paper gains turn to losses when trends reverse.
Institutional Shift Changes the Game
Institutions now drive more of the market, Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 brought steady money from funds. This makes rallies slower but longer, Retail investors compete with pros who have better tools. Past bull runs relied on retail FOMO. Now, calm inflows reduce wild swings. For future runs like 2028, retail must adapt or lag behind. Institutions favor compliant and mature assets.
Lower Retail Euphoria in Recent Cycles
The 2024 - 2025 period lacked strong retail mania. No big memecoin crazes or everyone talking crypto. Google searches stayed low compared to 2017 or 2021.
On chain data showed few new small wallets. Retail often entered through ETFs instead of direct buys. This reduced explosive gains but added stability. Many missed big wealth without the old hype. Future cycles may stay calmer.
Regulatory and Macro Effects
Clearer rules help growth but limit speculation. US policies in 2025 boosted confidence with pro crypto laws. Yet rules cut wild ups that past retail loved. Macro factors like liquidity affect cycles.
Global money flows support prices but change patterns. Investors who ignore these miss chances or face risks. Adaptation to new rules is key for success.
Lessons for the 2028 Bull Run
The next halving comes in 2028. It may spark growth but with less impact than before. Markets mature with more institutions. Diminishing returns mean smaller multiples. Behavioral traps like FOMO still exist.
Without plans, many may fail again. Studies urge learning from 2024. Focus on strategy, timing, and risk control. Preparation decides who wins in future runs.
My final Notes
why many did not reach big wealth in 2024 despite a bull market.
Behavioral biases
bad timing
no risk plans
market shifts explain it.
Institutions and rules make cycles different now. The 2028 run may offer chances but needs better preparation. Are you ready?
