#FedWatch : Navigating Interest Rate Expectations đŠđ
âWhat is FedWatch?: It is the CME Groupâs tool used to track the market's expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate changes based on Fed Funds futures pricing.
âCurrent Probabilities: For todayâs meeting (January 28, 2026), there is a 99% probability that the Fed will pause and keep rates steady at 3.5%â3.75%.
âMarket Focus: Since a pause is already priced in, the real volatility is expected during Jerome Powellâs press conference at 2:30 P.M. ET, as traders look for clues about potential cuts later in 2026. đ”ïžââïž
âFuture Outlook: Markets currently see low odds for a cut in March, with most institutional analysts predicting rates will remain steady for much of 2026 due to sticky inflation near 3%. đ
âCrypto Impact: A "hawkish" pause (signaling rates will stay high for longer) can put pressure on Bitcoin, while any hint of future easing often triggers a rally in risk assets. đ