Bitcoin’s next big move may hinge less on calm accumulation and more on a return to volatility, market observers say. After climbing into the $80k–$90k band, BTC has settled into narrow ranges — oscillating between roughly $86,000–$90,000 before testing $90,000–$93,000 — signaling a market content to accumulate quietly for now. That steady, range-bound action has reduced short-term swings and reassured traders wary of sharp drawdowns. But Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Asset Management, warns that the tranquility could be a headwind for a true breakout. “It is very unlikely for Bitcoin to find momentum to the upside without experiencing significantly higher volatility,” Park wrote on social media. He points to implied volatility sitting near 38% and month-to-date trading volumes that he calls “horrible” — lower than any month recorded so far in 2025. In Park’s view, the current price moves are being driven mainly by short-term traders, with scant institutional flow. That big-ticket institutional participation, he argues, is usually the catalyst for the parabolic rallies that restore volatility and push prices sharply higher. Park points to the recent silver surge as an instructive example. That record-setting melt-up, he says, wasn’t the product of a placid spot market but of “paper silver” dynamics — margin rules, leveraged instruments and liquidity mismatches that can create intense pressure at breaking points. “At those moments, no physical supply can be introduced fast enough to counter the velocity of paper supply,” he wrote. Bitcoin, Park suggests, might need a similar injection of forceful flows or structural tension to rekindle strong upward momentum. Otherwise, he warns, the current setup is “the worst possible setup for disappointment.” Signs of that potential tension are already bubbling below the surface. Derivatives positioning shows a clear dominance of long positions over shorts in Bitcoin markets — a bullish signal but one that can become precarious if price action fails to validate the optimism. On-chain analytics firm Alphractal flagged elevated liquidation risk, noting: “As long as the BTC long-to-short ratio stays above the market average without price follow-through, the risk of further liquidations remains high.” Liquidation data already reflects a significant flush of short-side bets: about $63.64 million in short liquidations compared with $15.38 million wiped from long positions. That imbalance could flip quickly if momentum swings, potentially generating the sort of volatility Park says BTC needs. Not everyone views the current lull as a problem. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, frames Bitcoin’s muted stretch as a pause rather than a failure. Since 2022, BTC has outperformed most major assets, including gold and silver, and that longer-term run-up helps explain why the market may now be “taking a breather” while precious metals enjoy a stronger year. Balchunas also suggests the market priced in “institutionalization” narratives early, before many developments fully played out. Looking ahead, he says a continuing macro theme — debt and debasement — could be enough to drive the next big leg for Bitcoin. For now, Bitcoin sits between calm consolidation and latent tension: accumulation is keeping prices stable, but cracks in volume and positioning point to the possibility that renewed volatility, whether through liquidations or fresh institutional flow, will determine the next decisive move. Disclaimer: AMBCrypto’s content is informational and not investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries high risk; do your own research before making decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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