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The Silver Story You Aren't Hearing: A Market Divided.
Right now, we're witnessing an unprecedented divergence in the global silver market. Same ounce, same metal – wildly different prices:
New York COMEX: $80
Shanghai SGE: $111
India MCX: $93
Japan retail: $120
Kuwait retail: $106
That's a 40% spread between New York and Shanghai! The largest sustained divergence in precious metals history. The arbitrage seems obvious: Buy COMEX at $80, ship to Shanghai, sell at $111, pocket $29.
But nobody can do it.
Here's why:
Paper vs. Physical: COMEX has a mere 108.7 million registered ounces, yet there are 1.586 billion paper claims against them. That's fourteen paper owners for every single physical ounce!
Vault Drain: In the first week of January, an astonishing 33.45 million ounces (26% of registered inventory) were physically pulled from the vault.
Lease Rates Explode: One-month lease rates for silver skyrocketed to 8% – a far cry from the normal 0.3%. The cost of borrowing silver now exceeds any potential arbitrage profit, effectively killing the mechanism that should close this gap.
A Tale of Two Markets on January 30th:
COMEX crashes 31% to $78 – its worst day since 1980.
The very same day, Shanghai Futures Exchange settles at 29,487 RMB per kilogram – an all-time high.
Two exchanges. Same metal. Opposite directions.
The Gates Are Closing:
On January 1, 2026, Beijing reclassified silver as a strategic material.
Only 44 companies are licensed to export, controlling 60-70% of global refined supply. The gate is locked.
Industry's Verdict:
Samsung, the world's largest semiconductor buyer, has stopped trusting the exchange entirely. They bypassed COMEX and secured a direct, two-year exclusive offtake deal for 100% of a Canadian mine's output. When a major industrial player goes straight to the source, it signals more than a pricing problem – it's a credibility problem for the exchange.
There are now two silver markets: one that trades electrons, and one that trades atoms.
The atoms aren't lying.#Silver #XAU $XAG
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