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Silver. Right now. Same ounce. Same metal.
New York COMEX: $80
Shanghai SGE: $111
India MCX: $93
Japan retail: $120
Kuwait retail: $106
40% spread between New York and Shanghai.
The largest sustained divergence in precious metals history.
The arbitrage is obvious. Buy COMEX at $80. Ship to Shanghai. Sell at $111. Pocket $29.
Nobody can do it.
COMEX has 108.7 million registered ounces. Paper claims against them: 1.586 billion. Fourteen owners for every ounce that exists. In the first week of January, 33.45 million ounces were physically pulled from the vault. 26% of registered inventory gone in seven days.
One-month lease rates exploded to 8%. Normal is 0.3%. The cost of borrowing silver to arbitrage now exceeds the profit from the trade.
The mechanism that should close the gap is economically dead.
January 30. COMEX crashes 31% to $78. Worst day since 1980. Same day, Shanghai Futures Exchange settles at 29,487 RMB per kilogram. An all-time high. Two exchanges. Same metal. Opposite directions.
January 1, 2026. Beijing reclassifies silver as a strategic material. 44 companies licensed to export. They control 60 to 70% of global refined supply. The gate is locked.
Samsung stopped trusting the exchange entirely. Bypassed COMEX. Locked a direct two-year exclusive offtake deal with a Canadian mine for 100% of output. When the world's largest semiconductor buyer secures silver straight from the ground, the exchange doesn't have a pricing problem. It has a credibility problem.
There are two silver markets now. One trades electrons. The other trades atoms.
The atoms aren't lying.
New York COMEX: $80
Shanghai SGE: $111
India MCX: $93
Japan retail: $120
Kuwait retail: $106
40% spread between New York and Shanghai.
The largest sustained divergence in precious metals history.
The arbitrage is obvious. Buy COMEX at $80. Ship to Shanghai. Sell at $111. Pocket $29.
Nobody can do it.
COMEX has 108.7 million registered ounces. Paper claims against them: 1.586 billion. Fourteen owners for every ounce that exists. In the first week of January, 33.45 million ounces were physically pulled from the vault. 26% of registered inventory gone in seven days.
One-month lease rates exploded to 8%. Normal is 0.3%. The cost of borrowing silver to arbitrage now exceeds the profit from the trade.
The mechanism that should close the gap is economically dead.
January 30. COMEX crashes 31% to $78. Worst day since 1980. Same day, Shanghai Futures Exchange settles at 29,487 RMB per kilogram. An all-time high. Two exchanges. Same metal. Opposite directions.
January 1, 2026. Beijing reclassifies silver as a strategic material. 44 companies licensed to export. They control 60 to 70% of global refined supply. The gate is locked.
Samsung stopped trusting the exchange entirely. Bypassed COMEX. Locked a direct two-year exclusive offtake deal with a Canadian mine for 100% of output. When the world's largest semiconductor buyer secures silver straight from the ground, the exchange doesn't have a pricing problem. It has a credibility problem.
There are two silver markets now. One trades electrons. The other trades atoms.
The atoms aren't lying.
Avertissement : comprend des opinions de tiers. Il ne s’agit pas d’un conseil financier. Peut inclure du contenu sponsorisé. Consultez les CG.