XRP price risks repeating 2022 crash as new buyers go underwater
XRP is below the average buy price of the past year, putting many holders in the red and increasing downside risk in the near term.
XRP$1.64
mirrored a 50% crash scenario from 2022 as it underwent its sharpest weekly selloff since October 2025.
Key takeaways:
XRP risks an extended downside if it breaks below $1.48 as whale selling persists.
Holding $1.43–$1.48 keeps hopes alive for the bulls.
New XRP buyers are in the red
As of Monday, XRP was trading around $1.60, down more than 20% over the past week and sitting well below the cost basis of buyers from the last 12 months.
It is now just above its aggregated realized price near $1.48, which tracks the average cost basis of all XRP in circulation. It means that a large share of XRP’s recent buyers are underwater.
A decisive break below $1.48 would mean the average holder will be underwater, a setup that closely matches the 2022 bear phase that ultimately ended in a 50% drawdown to about $0.30.
Additionally, XRP’s 90-day whale flow remains net negative, with large holders distributing rather than accumulating, data from CryptoQuant shows.
When new buyers are already underwater, continued whale selling can increase the overhead supply and weaken any rebound attempts.