The US ISM Manufacturing PMI just printed at 52.6, breaking above the 50-mark for the first time since Jan 2025. A bullish indicator for the economy.
The caveat: A strong ISM reduces the pressure on the Fed to cut rates. Historically, the Fed is more likely to pause or hike when ISM is expanding (chart coming soon).
The chart:
Light green = Bitcoins price action, bottom to top.
Red = ISM < 50
Dark Green = ISM > 50
Notice these timeframes:
2014-2015 & 2018-2019
ISM was steadily holding 52-59. Yet Bitcoin entered into the bear market.
2023-2025
ISM stayed below 50 for 2 years. Yet Bitcoin rallied 700%
ISM is not a 1:1 indicator for Bitcoin. It's a better indicator of future Fed policy.
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