Bitcoin (D1 timeframe)
It is true that the RSI indicator points to an almost record oversold level, with RSI near 27, but the MACD shows clear weakness. Moreover, when we look at Bitcoin’s previous price reactions, as well as the 2020–2021 bull market, we see striking similarities. There is a chance that the ongoing downward move will continue and push BTC down toward key on-chain support levels, which we can look for near USD 50,000 (Realized Price). Short-term investors are increasingly posting losses today—on average nearly 15%—with an average purchase price near USD 90,000, while the spot price is almost 25% below the 200-day EMA (red line), which runs around USD 99,000.
There is therefore no doubt that the current correction (40% from the peak at USD 126,000) can be described as a technical Bitcoin bear market. If history were to serve as a guide, Bitcoin could trade in the USD 50,000–60,000 range in the second half of the year. The biggest risk for the markets remains the situation around Strategy, which has accumulated hundreds of thousands of BTC in recent years (average price approx. USD 76,000 per BTC), as well as selling pressure from US spot ETFs, which for practically the first time since their launch in 2024 are currently showing an average loss of a few percent. As long as BTC is trading below USD 90,000, the advantage remains with sellers, and the four-year halving cycle seems to be “materializing” before our eyes, with a potential “bear-market bottom” in Q4 2026.