Bitcoin Bear Market & Possible Bottom – CoinMarketCap Analysis

Bernstein analysts believe Bitcoin could form its bottom during 2026, with the price potentially dropping to around $60,000 in the first half of the year, creating a strong support level before recovery begins. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $75,000, about 40% below its all-time high, reflecting market weakness.

Prediction markets also signal bearish sentiment. According to Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 in 2026 is above 70%. There are also notable chances of dropping below $55,000 and still recovering above $100,000 by year-end, highlighting high uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s market cap has fallen to about 4% of gold’s total market cap, near a two-year low. Meanwhile, China and India increased gold purchases by late 2025, pushing gold’s share of global reserves to around 29%, while Bitcoin underperformed gold.

Bernstein says this is likely a short-term bear market, different from previous long downturns due to strong institutional involvement, including spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate balance-sheet holdings.

However, CryptoQuant suggests the bear market officially began after Bitcoin dropped below its long-term average in Nov 2025 and warns that bear market bottoms typically take months to form, so immediate bottom-hunting may be premature.

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