Publier
BTC hits 200K I change my name
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$BTC broke below $70K.
Stay calm. History rewards the patient
Down ~8% today. ~46% off ATH.
Fear & Greed is pinned at Extreme Fear.
Headlines are all bears.
The Math:
BTC is ~45% below power-law trend value
($123K fair value vs ~$67.7K spot, R² = 0.961 over 15+ years).
At 22 months post-halving, this is the deepest oversold reading yet in a phase where prior cycles were usually overbought.
Z-score: -0.85 (statistically cheap)
In this oversold regime:
• 1Y forward win rate: 100%
• Avg forward return: +100% plus
• 18-month Z vs forward return correlation: -0.745
(about 55% of variance explained)
Mean-reversion half-life: 133 days.
Drift path alone implies ~$111K by mid-2026.
When choosing between panic and math, math wins.
Stay calm. History rewards patience.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Stay calm. History rewards the patient
Down ~8% today. ~46% off ATH.
Fear & Greed is pinned at Extreme Fear.
Headlines are all bears.
The Math:
BTC is ~45% below power-law trend value
($123K fair value vs ~$67.7K spot, R² = 0.961 over 15+ years).
At 22 months post-halving, this is the deepest oversold reading yet in a phase where prior cycles were usually overbought.
Z-score: -0.85 (statistically cheap)
In this oversold regime:
• 1Y forward win rate: 100%
• Avg forward return: +100% plus
• 18-month Z vs forward return correlation: -0.745
(about 55% of variance explained)
Mean-reversion half-life: 133 days.
Drift path alone implies ~$111K by mid-2026.
When choosing between panic and math, math wins.
Stay calm. History rewards patience.
{future}(BTCUSDT)
Avertissement : comprend des opinions de tiers. Il ne s’agit pas d’un conseil financier. Peut inclure du contenu sponsorisé. Consultez les CG.