Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its October peak, raising fears that the four-year market cycle may be repeating. However, K33 Research believes an 80% crash like previous cycles is unlikely due to the current market structure.

Although analysts earlier claimed the four-year cycle had ended, recent price movements resemble the sell-offs of 2018 and 2022. This time, investor behavior is driving prices more than weak fundamentals. The market differs from past cycles because of institutional investment, growth in regulated products, and easing interest rates.

Fears of a repeating cycle could push long-term holders to sell and discourage new investors, increasing selling pressure. Still, strong support exists through billions in ETF inflows, greater advisor access, and expanding bank crypto services.

Some bottom signals are emerging: derivatives open interest and funding rates have turned negative, with about $1.8B in long liquidations — conditions historically linked with bear-market bottoms and potential price reversals.#RiskAssetsMarketShock #BTC #Ethereum