Is This Rally a Reversal or Just a Bounce? 🚨
My take: The early 2026 move is likely a massive rebound, not a true reversal. Think 2019 structure: brutal flush to kill sentiment, followed by a sharp, deceptive rally. This rebound baits liquidity chasers into thinking Altseason is back, but it usually tops out below the previous high before the real deleveraging begins.
Technically,
$BTC faces heavy resistance near $98k-$100k (the 50-week MA). If it only touches that zone and gets rejected, it confirms the trend isn't over, suggesting deeper downside risk than most anticipate.
We have three red flags aligning: weakening technicals (death cross confirmed), rising sentiment optimism, and tight fundamental liquidity. When these three converge, it screams "local top," not "bull market start." Every rally in early 2026 must be stress-tested against these three signals.
The real danger isn't panic selling; it's getting trapped during these seemingly stable rebound phases. People re-leverage when they think the worst is over, only to be liquidated in the subsequent, deeper drop—a pattern seen repeatedly from 2018-2019. Expect a technical bounce to restore confidence, lure in fresh capital to a mediocre high, and then the real descent. Those who believe "this time is different" are the most vulnerable.
$ETH #CryptoAnalysis #MarketStructure #Deleveraging #BTC 📉