Technical Analysis
Trend Structure
BTC remains in a medium-term recovery phase after the recent decline from the 95K supply zone.
Price is currently trading below MA5 (93,428) and MA10 (93,491), indicating short-term weakness.
Price is still above MA30 (91,378), keeping the broader structure neutral-to-bullish.
Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: 93,400 – 94,000
Major Resistance: 94,800 – 95,000 (strong rejection zone)
Immediate Support: 92,300
Critical Support: 91,100 – 90,800
Invalidation Level: Below 89,300 (trend turns bearish)
Momentum Indicators
MACD: Negative (-60.62) with DIF below DEA, signaling short-term bearish momentum.
Histogram contraction suggests selling pressure is weakening, not accelerating.
This points to a healthy pullback, not a trend reversal.
Volume Analysis
Volume remains stable around 200M USDT, showing no panic selling.
Sellers lack strong conviction below 92K, indicating accumulation behavior near support.
Market Behavior & Probability
The rejection near 95K confirms a temporary distribution zone, not a macro top.
As long as BTC holds above 91K, the market favors range continuation or renewed upside.
A consolidation between 92K–94K is statistically likely before the next directional move.
Fundamental Analysis
Institutional Influence
Grayscale-related exposure and ETF-linked narratives continue to support long-term valuation.
No negative macro or on-chain shock currently affecting Bitcoin fundamentals.
Macro Frequency Impact
Short-term volatility driven by profit-taking and leverage flushes.
Medium-term trend remains dependent on:
US liquidity conditions
ETF inflows
Dollar strength (DXY stability)
On-Chain & Supply Context
Long-term holders remain inactive.
Exchange outflows continue at a controlled pace, reducing sell-side pressure.
Outlook
Short Term: Bearish-to-neutral (pullback phase)
Mid Term: Neutral-to-bullish if 91K holds
Bullish Continuation Trigger: Clean break and close above 95,000 with volume
Conclusion a broader stabilization phase. Market structure remains intact above 91K. This move reflects profit-taking rather than structural weakness. Patience is advised until confirmation from volume and momentum.
gggNot financial advice. Market volatility remains high.
