i was watching the order books today and something jsut felt off. normally when we hit a big round number like 90k u see this massive explosion of retail hype but this time it feels... quiet. underneath the surface of this $BTC move there’s a texture we haven't seen in a while.
last week we saw that early jan surge toward 95k get rejected hard. it felt like a classic fakeout but then we found this steady foundation around 88k. what struck me is that even though the etf flows turned slightly negative for a couple days the "accumulator" addresses—the guys with the diamond hands—actually added about 60,000 $BTC to their bags. thats a lot of supply being absorbed while everyone else is panicking about a "trap."
when i first looked at this i thought maybe the miners were going to dump us into the dirt. they did send about 33,000 btc to exchanges recently which usually means they're de-risking to pay the bills. but the market jsut ate it up. that momentum creates another effect where the "short term holder cost basis" is sitting way up near 99k. basically a lot of people who bought the top last year are still underwater and they're waiting to break even which is creating this thick ceiling of resistance we’re hitting right now.
if this 90k level holds as support it remains to be seen if we have the gas to punch through 95k. early signs suggest institutional buyers like microstrategy are still hovering. they recently added another 1,286 btc which shows the big money is buying the "dip" even if the dip is at ninety thousand dollars lol. it’s a weird spot to be in—too high for the bears to feel safe and too range-bound for the bulls to go full moon-boy.
understanding this helps explain why we keep bouncing in this 8-week consolidation range. we aren't in a "moon" phase yet; we’re in an accumulation phase that has been earned through months of sideways pain. the market is clearing the decks of weak hands before the next real leg. it’s not a trap if u look at the long-term on-chain metrics showing reduced profit-taking.
patience is the only thing that works here. we’re building a base that is changing how we view "expensive" btc. 90k is the new 60k and the real move happens when that overhead supply at 99k finally gives way.
the smartest money isn't trading the 1m charts right now; they're watching the floor.
#Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #TradingStrategy #Web3 #BTC90K
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