Urgent Update: Tariff Verdict & Retailers’ Legal Strike Status as of Monday Night, January 12, 2026
The Supreme Court did not issue a ruling today. However, the Court has updated its schedule, and the next major "Opinion Day" is set for Wednesday, January 14, 2026.
The tension has reached a boiling point as the Treasury and major retailers square off over a potential $133B to $190B refund.
1. Retailer "Heads Out of the Sand": The Lawsuit Surge
Major retailers have moved from quiet negotiation to aggressive litigation. They are terrified of a legal trap called "Liquidation."
• The Problem: Under U.S. law, once a tariff entry is "liquidated" (finalized), the money is often gone forever. Many companies face a mid-January deadline.
• The Plaintiffs:
• Costco: Has filed a massive suit calling the tariffs "unlawfully collected duties." They are specifically targeting tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China.
• Revlon & Kawasaki: Joined the "refund queue" to ensure that if the Court rules against Trump, they are legally entitled to their specific payments back with interest.
• Bumble Bee Foods & Ray-Ban (EssilorLuxottica): Have also filed suits in the Court of International Trade to "suspend liquidation" and keep their refund rights alive.
2. Treasury’s Response: "Corporate Boondoggle"
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent addressed the refund issue today (Jan 12).
• The Cash Flow: Bessent confirmed the Treasury has $774 Billion on hand—more than enough to cover the refunds.
• The Rhetoric: He dismissed the lawsuits as a "corporate boondoggle," questioning whether companies like Costco would actually pass the refunds back to consumers or simply pocket the cash for shareholders.
• The Warning: He noted that even if the government loses, payments would not go out in a single day; it would likely take "weeks, months, or over a year" to process the claims.
3. White House "Plan B": The Section 338 Pivot
NEC Director Kevin Hassett reiterated that the administration is ready to replicate the existing tariffs "basically immediately" using other laws if IEEPA is struck down.
• Section 338: This is the "nuclear option" from the 1930s. It allows Trump to slap up to 50% tariffs on any country he deems is "discriminating" against the U.S.
• The Logic: By switching to Section 338, the White House bypasses the "National Emergency" requirement that the Supreme Court is currently skeptical of.
Crypto & Market Impact (Immediate)
• Bitcoin (BTC): Rose ~2% on Friday when the ruling was delayed, touching $91,800. Traders are viewing the delay as a sign that the Court might be struggling to find a consensus, which some see as a "mild win" for the status quo.
• Volatility Alert: Expect massive swings on Wednesday morning (10:00 AM ET).
• If Struck Down: Massive rally for retail stocks and crypto (liquidity injection narrative).
• If Upheld: Strong USD, likely temporary dip for crypto.
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