China's unexpected rise in the tech industry has forced global powers like the U.S., Germany, and Japan to recognize its explosive growth. Despite U.S. attempts to block China's tech progress—especially with chip restrictions—China has not only persevered but thrived. Bill Gates had predicted this years ago, warning that China would find solutions faster than expected, and his words have proven true.
In 2019, the U.S. added over 1,200 Chinese firms to the Entity List, cutting off access to high-end chips. By 2022, the U.S. implemented the $39B CHIPS Act and joined forces with other countries to block China's access to advanced tech, expecting to stifle its progress. However, China used these obstacles as motivation. SMIC, China's chip maker, stabilized at 14nm, progressed to 7nm production, and began producing memory chips that shocked the global market.
By 2024, China's chip import bill had dropped by 350B RMB, and SMIC’s revenue hit $8.03B, making it the third-largest foundry globally. As the U.S. tech giants like Qualcomm and Intel faced losses, China continued to advance, with companies like YMTC eroding the memory advantage long held by the West.
By 2025, China’s chip ecosystem had fully matured, with 3,901 chip design firms and 29.4% YoY growth. While the U.S. still leads in advanced tech, China now controls nearly half of the global mature-process market, including key sectors like automotive and industrial chips. Bill Gates' warning proved correct—export controls didn’t protect dominance; they fueled China’s rise.
