Here’s something interesting Vitalik talked about recently.
He thinks prediction markets today are drifting too much toward what’s “marketable.” A lot of attention goes to events that create hype, but don’t really produce meaningful social information. In other words, too much naive speculation, not enough real utility.
What I found more important is his point about who should actually be using prediction markets.
Right now, most participants are just traders chasing volatility. But he argues the next step is turning prediction markets into real hedging tools.
For example, if you own biotech stocks, you could hedge political risk by taking positions in markets related to elections or regulation that could hurt that sector. That’s not gambling. That’s managing exposure.
He also mentioned a bigger idea: imagine building price indices for major goods and services, even region-specific ones. Then imagine each person or company having a local AI that understands their spending habits. That AI could suggest a personalized basket of prediction market positions that matches your expected future expenses.
In that kind of system, you’re not just holding fiat and hoping inflation doesn’t hurt you. You’re actively hedging your cost of living.
It’s a bold idea.
But it shows how he sees prediction markets — not as betting platforms, but as economic infrastructure.
#Vitalik #predictons