$BTC 17:00–22:30 (Pre-PCE, ongoing)

Bias saat ini: Leaning bullish (60-65% probabilitas higher high dalam 24-48 jam), dengan harga kini di ~$89,600 (naik ~1.2% dari close kemarin ~$88,500, per data CoinMarketCap). Kemarin sideways lambat (range $88k–$90k, vol rendah ~2.5%), selaras dengan jobless claims rendah (191k, terendah sejak 2022) yang tekan harapan rate cut Fed—tapi mixed data (Factory Orders +0.2% MoM Oct, ISM PMI 48.2 kontraksi) bikin DXY hold 105.5, delay momentum BTC. Hari ini PCE (rilis 22:30 WIB, ekspektasi core MoM 0.2%, YoY 2.7%) jadi pivot: Kalau actual ≤0.1% MoM, "bad news = good news" → DXY dump → risk-on ke $91k+.

Alasan utama:
MACD daily hold crossover bullish (histogram +0.12, divergence dari low $86k kemarin), dengan CVD net +5% di Binance perpetual pagi ini. Jobless claims 191k (turun 27k, terendah >3 tahun per DOL & Reuters) sinyal labor kuat → hawkish Fed, tapi kontradiksi dengan ISM PMI 48.2 (kontraksi ke-9 bulan, per ISM report) & Factory Orders $586.7B (+0.2% MoM Oct, rebound tipis per Census). Ini mixed signal bikin BTC "slow" kemarin, tapi oversold (RSI 42) siap bounce.PBOC lanjutkan injection ample: Net +100B Yuan (~$14B) via MLF Nov (total injection 1T Yuan, withdraw 900B, per PBOC statement), plus +50B via bond trading (Caixin). Bukan "stop report"—ongoing support likuiditas, long-biased untuk risk assets seperti BTC di sesi Asia.BlackRock IBIT ETF inflows campur: +$120M 3 Dec (Farside), tapi outflow streak $2.7B 5 minggu terakhir (Bloomberg), sinyal institusi hati-hati year-end. Kalau PCE dingin, inflows bisa flip positif lagi. Konsensus (CoinCodex) target $91,200 hari ini, Fear & Greed 28 (Fear).

Zona waktu & skenario (WIB)
07:00–15:00 → Potensi continuation hijau (Asia + London). Target $90.5k–$91.2k kalau volume >1.1x rata-rata; entry long di dip $89k.
15:00–17:00 → Overlap, sering choppy. Ranging $89k–$90k; kurangi eksposur 30% untuk hindari fakeout pre-NY.
17:00–22:30 → Pre-PCE consolidation. Swing $89.5k–$91k; watch positioning.
22:30–00:00 → High vol pas PCE. Kalau core MoM ≤0.1% → break atas ke $92k+ realistis (DXY dump, Unmicu up sinyal risk-on); kalau ≥0.3% → test $88k (hawkish). Spike 5-10 menit post-rilis key.
00:00–04:00 → Low liquidity, potensi add institusi. Hold partial kalau post-PCE hijau, close 60% sebelum jam 01:00 WIB.
04:00–07:00 → Daily close prep, ranging. Hindari entry baru kecuali close atas $90k.

Invalidation level (wajib)
Daily close di bawah **$88,500** (low kemarin + 38.2% Fib harian) → flip ke netral/bearish, cut semua long dan reassess di $87.5k.
Intraday drop ke $88k → exit immediate, probabilitas bullish turun ke <50%.

Risk/reward saat ini 1:2.4 kalau entry di $89.5k–$89.8k (stop $88.5k, target $92k). Saya hold 30% ukuran normal (long dari $88.8k kemarin), sisanya tunggu konfirmasi post-PCE. Mixed data kemarin bikin slow, tapi PCE potensial catalyst—disiplin, no force trade.
$BTC Trade safe.