"Supply Shock" Bitcoin: Is it a Bull Market Signal or a Liquidity Trap?
What can I say, the main core is one keyword: liquidity.
According to on-chain data, long-term holders have hoarded 75,000 BTC (3.2 billion USD) over 10 days, with 74% of the coins locked up. Sounds impressive, right? Supply decreases, price goes up?
But think about what another piece of data says?
Actual capital inflow plummeted by 88% in two months, from 38 billion USD to 4.7 billion USD. Miner income fell by 11%, while mining difficulty reached an all-time high. It’s like a pool; the surface looks calm, but the water underneath is draining rapidly.
From another perspective, the market dominated by institutions appears stable on the surface but is actually fragile. OTC bulk trading and ETFs have absorbed the supply, but once the balance is broken, shallow spot liquidity can cause prices to collapse instantly—just like that previous "liquidity singularity" that dropped to 80,000 USD.
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The main trading logic here is: risk-reward ratio.
If you believe this is a "mid-cycle reset" with a target of 200,000 USD, then around 100,000 USD now is a 2:1 risk-reward ratio. But if you think this is the "beginning of a deep adjustment," where’s your stop loss? 90,000? 80,000?
But you need to ask yourself, can you afford to lose?
According to endgame thinking, Bitcoin's long-term value lies in the "digital gold" narrative, but short-term volatility is the norm. Don’t be misled by the "supply shock" story; we still need to return to understanding liquidity.
It is inevitable that people are different; some are suited for long-term holding, while others are suited for swing trading. Find your rhythm, and don’t follow the crowd. $BTC
