A recent white paper from investment firm VanEck proposes a radical recalibration of gold’s true monetary worth. Their models indicate that if gold were fully integrated as a global reserve anchor, its value could fall within a range of $39,210 to $184,000 per ounce—dwarfing its current market price.
Core Thesis
The analysis benchmarks gold’s scarcity against the total global broad money supply, framing it not merely as a commodity, but as the ultimate non-sovereign monetary asset. This theoretical valuation underscores its latent capacity to act as a stabilizing pillar in an era of persistent inflation and fiat currency debasement.
Key Implications
- Valuation Gap: With spot prices hovering near $4,600/oz, gold trades at a profound discount to its modeled “reserve value.”
- Monetary Hedge: The study reinforces gold’s structural role as a long-term store of value, particularly during shifts in monetary policy and confidence.
- Systemic Role: The upper-bound estimate reflects gold’s potential price in a scenario where it formally anchors a renewed international monetary framework.
Expert Perspective
VanEck’s conclusion is stark: gold’s price in the open market reflects its trading liquidity, but not its fundamental monetary utility. In a world reconsidering reserve asset composition, its strategic importance—and implied valuation—could be radically reassessed.
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