A core part of my analysis is the study of historical price action and recurring market structure. By comparing past cycles and identifying repeating behavioral patterns, I’ve been able to navigate this cycle effectively so far. This approach has served me particularly well on the HTF.

I think its important to clarify: I am a HTF trader.

I’m rarely wrong on HTF analysis because my decisions are rooted in data, not emotion. I don’t trade based on what I "think" or "feel"; I act only when the probabilities are mathematically in my favor. At times I’ll enter earlier than ideal, at times later.

Back in 2021, we saw an almost identical narrative, remarkably similar market structure and context to where we are now. Timing-wise, this cycle has closely tracked 2021 and prior cycles. I’m simply following a pattern that has remained intact for over 12 years. Eventually, that pattern will break, and that’s completely fine. But statistically, I’d rather position myself with a recurring structure than against it.

Many doubted the validity of the 4-year cycle in October. Yet, if you mapped the ATHs and ATLs objectively, the data allowed for a short at the peak candle around 123K, which I personally executed, publicly. Over time, data consistently outperforms skepticism.

In the 2021 fractal, BTC front-ran the 50K psychological level. Today, that equivalent level is 100K. If this pattern even loosely persists, BTC may fail to cleanly break above 100K, instead treating it as a psychological ceiling.

We recently tested 80K, and over the past 6–8 months the median short-term buyer cost basis has been in the 95–100K range. That suggests potential sell pressure from underwater participants, alongside larger players seeking exits. From a psychological standpoint, many may choose to front-run 100K rather than wait for a clean test, reinforcing the idea that the level may not be meaningfully breached.

We also have a diagonal resistance similar to what we saw in 2021. That said, this is still technical analysis and should be treated accordingly. Based on this structure, extensions into the 98–99K region are entirely possible and would not invalidate my thesis.

If there’s one area I could have marginally improved, it would be patience and entry refinement. I anticipated this impulse in Q1 and stated that multiple times, but my scaling zone was slightly too shallow. When you’re coming off a strong win streak, confidence and confluence can lead to earlier-than-ideal entries, which is what happened here. That doesn’t negate the broader thesis.

If invalidation occurs in the 104–105K region, I’ll reassess the entire trend and wait for HTF confirmation before taking any swing positions.

If you disagree with my thesis, simply don’t follow it. I’m not advising anyone, this is strictly my own positioning.

Thank you.

$BTC

#MarketRebound