Key Market Dynamics for January 2026
Massive Expiry Size: More than $8.3 billion in Bitcoin options and $1.2 billion in Ethereum options are set to expire on Friday, January 30, 2026. This is one of the largest expiries for 2026.
The "Pinning" Effect: BTC has been anchored near $90,000, which is currently the "max pain" level—the price at which the highest number of options expire worthless. As expiration nears, gamma decay causes price movements to gravitate toward this strike.
Gamma Shift and GEX: Recent shifts in Bitcoin's gamma positioning indicate that the $88,000 level has transitioned from Long Gamma to Short Gamma, while the total Gamma Exposure (GEX) at $92,000 has reached $1.4 billion. This shift generally signals that volatility will increase as the price breaks out of these ranges.
Market Maker Behavior: Dealers are currently in a "long gamma" position, which has recently suppressed realized volatility and kept the market in a tight range. Once these contracts expire, the "overhang" is released, often allowing for a sharp directional push—either a relief rally or a deep correction.