Fluktuasi pasar global, inti dari ini adalah investor yang merespons dua perubahan signifikan:
Perubahan gaya pengambilan keputusan Federal Reserve dalam beberapa tahun mendatang, serta penurunan tingkat kepercayaan global terhadap aset dolar.
Nominasi Walsh adalah pemicu langsung, sementara alasan yang lebih dalam adalah bahwa tren 'menjual Amerika' baru-baru ini jelas mempercepat.
I. Nominasi ketua Federal Reserve: Ketidakpastian kebijakan dan kekhawatiran 'suku bunga tinggi'
· Inti peristiwa: Trump mencalonkan Kevin Walsh sebagai ketua Federal Reserve berikutnya.
· Interpretasi pasar: Walsh adalah pendukung kebijakan pengetatan selama krisis keuangan, meskipun baru-baru ini beralih untuk mendukung pemotongan suku bunga, analisis menunjukkan bahwa dia tidak 'se-dovish' dibandingkan kandidat lainnya dan cenderung mendukung lebih sedikit pemotongan suku bunga. Pendapat kebijakan yang diajukan (seperti mendukung pengurangan suku bunga sambil menyerukan pengurangan ukuran neraca Federal Reserve) juga membawa kompleksitas.
· Direct Impact: Coupled with unexpectedly high Producer Price Index (PPI) data, the market reacted violently in the short term. The US dollar index surged, while precious metals such as gold and silver, which are sensitive to interest rate cut expectations and have previously risen too much, faced a "stampede" decline.
二、 Global Capital Flows: "Sell America" and "Flow into Emerging Markets"
Before the Washington meeting, global capital had already begun to massively reconfigure assets.
· Capital Outflow from the United States: Due to uncertainties in US domestic policies, fiscal deficits, and concerns over the Trump administration's frequent use of tariff tools, funds continue to flow out of the United States. For example, some European pension funds have sold off US Treasury bonds, and the Reserve Bank of India has also reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds.
· Capital Inflow into Emerging Markets: A large amount of funds flowing out of the United States has entered emerging markets. In January 2026, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index performed strongly, with many countries' stock markets and local currency bonds receiving significant capital inflows. Behind this is the improvement of emerging market fundamentals under the weak dollar environment.
三、 Composite Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market
The aforementioned macro dynamics have multifaceted impacts on the cryptocurrency market:
· Short-term Suppression of Risk Appetite: The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have weakened (some institutions predict no more rate cuts this year) and the US dollar is strengthening in the short term, which will suppress global high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
· Medium to Long-term Structural Support:
1. "De-dollarization" Narrative: Global concerns about the dollar's credit may strengthen the long-term narrative of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as "alternative value storage methods."
2. Improvement of Policy Environment: The Trump administration has clearly supported the cryptocurrency industry, and the United States has made progress in stablecoin legislation, providing a clearer regulatory environment for institutional capital to enter the market.
3. Traditional Finance Accelerates Entry: Major financial institutions (such as BlackRock, UBS) publicly recognize the strategic significance of blockchain technology, and the layout around asset tokenization and other fields is accelerating.
Core Points Summary
The current market is at a turning point: the Federal Reserve may shift towards a more inflation-resistant "hawkish" leadership, while global capital accelerates diversification due to concerns about US policies. These two forces together orchestrated the recent dramatic fluctuations in global assets.
For the cryptocurrency sector, in the short term, it will be impacted by expectations of tightening global liquidity, but in the medium to long term, it will benefit from the two macro themes of "weak dollar credit" and "strong regulatory clarity." The entry of institutional investors and the development of real use cases (such as tokenization) may gradually free the market from pure speculation cycles and enter a more sustainable development stage.