The "gamma decay" from Friday's expiry failed to lead to a relief rally, instead giving way to several bearish catalysts:
Fed Leadership Shift: Concerns are mounting following the selection of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Investors fear his appointment signals a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment and a potential tightening of financial system liquidity.
Inflation Shock: U.S. services inflation surged by 0.5% (PPI), causing markets to reprice 2026 rate cut expectations down to just 52 basis points for the entire year.
Geopolitical Tensions: Reports of an explosion at Iran's Bandar Abbas port have triggered a "risk-off" flight to traditional safe havens like gold, leaving Bitcoin behind.
ETF Outflows: January concluded with nearly $1.1 billion in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking a sustained period of institutional redemption.
Strategic Levels to Watch
Support: Analysts are eyeing $74,400 as the next major support zone if the current $77,000 area fails to hold.
Fear Sentiment: Market "fear" has hit a 2026 high. For a reversal, Bitcoin likely needs to reclaim the $81,000 level to neutralize the immediate "short gamma" selling pressure from dealers.
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