We are officially entering a period of unprecedented market blindness. If you have skin in the game—Stocks, Crypto, or Commodities—it’s time to pivot. The flow of information has been severed.
📉 The Information "Death Row"
Without government funding, the following data streams are offline:
Inflation Gauges: No CPI or PPI prints.
Labor Market: No jobless claims or NFP reports.
Economic Health: GDP, PCE, and CFTC positioning reports are frozen.
The Bottom Line: The Fed is flying a plane without a dashboard, and investors are right there in the cockpit with them.
🏛️ What History Teaches Us
When the data stops, the volatility begins. We typically see two distinct shifts:
Flight to Hard Assets: Gold, Silver, and Copper historically catch a massive bid as investors flee "paper" uncertainty. 📈
Equity Paralysis: Stocks don't just go down; they go chaotic. Without a "vision" of the macro landscape, fear becomes the primary driver.
⚠️ Liquidity Red Alert
Remember the funding stress of March 2020? Keep a close eye on the SOFR vs. IORB spread. If that gap widens, we’re looking at a systemic liquidity crunch.