On February 7, Glassnode released a report on social media highlighting potential bear market signals observed around Halloween last year. According to BlockBeats, investor behavior on the blockchain suggested a shift towards a bear market, leading to a price drop of approximately 45% over the following 100 days, from $110,000 to $60,000.
Data on 'Long-term Holder Profit Pressure' reveals that since November 1, long-term holders have realized profits of approximately 318,000 BTC. This large-scale selling in a weak market has continued to exert downward pressure on prices. However, since early December, the holdings of long-term investors have started to increase, indicating a slowdown in their selling activity.
The 'Market Loss Degree' data shows that at the $60,000 price level, the ratio has reached about 24%, significantly higher than the bull-bear transition threshold. This suggests the market is in a deep bear phase but has not yet reached the extreme panic selling stage of over 50%, indicating a bubble-squeezing process.
Furthermore, since reaching a previous high in October, prices have consistently failed to stabilize above the cost basis of the top 1%, 5%, 10%, and 20% of large holders. At the $60,000 level, prices are approximately 37% below the cost basis of the top 20% holders, which is around $95,000, showing that high-level buyers are under significant psychological pressure, similar to the market structure in May 2022.