Altcoin rotation always starts with BTC behavior, not hype. Here’s how the market typically transitions and where we are now.
1️⃣ Phase 1: BTC Leads (Capital Protection Mode)
Capital parks in BTC for safety & liquidity
BTC dominance rises
Alts bleed or go sideways
✅ This is where markets reset and weak hands get shaken out
Signal: BTC trending up or ranging tightly while alts underperform
2️⃣ Phase 2: ETH & Large Caps Wake Up
BTC slows down (ranges, low volatility)
ETH + large caps start outperforming BTC
Dominance stalls or rolls over
This is the first real rotation signal, but most people miss it.
3️⃣ Phase 3: Mid-Cap Alt Expansion
Confidence returns
Money flows into infrastructure, AI, L2s, gaming, RWAs
BTC stays stable, not pumping
This is where smart money already positioned looks genius.
4️⃣ Phase 4: Small Caps & Mania
Retail enters
Narrative coins fly regardless of fundamentals
BTC dominance drops fast
⚠️ This phase is short-lived and brutal on the exit.
Where We Are Now (Realistic View)
BTC still controls direction
Rotation is selective, not broad
Strong alts outperform only when BTC is calm
This is not full altseason yet it’s early positioning season.
What Works Best Right Now
Accumulate quality alts during BTC ranges
Avoid chasing green candles
Watch BTC dominance + BTC volatility, not x narratives
Confirmation Checklist for Full Altseason
BTC dominance breaks HTF support
BTC ranges for weeks (no big impulsive moves)
ETH consistently outperforms BTC
Until then → BTC first, alts second, patience always.