Anndy Lian
Crypto market cap drops to US$2.3T as Fed rate cut hopes fade after hot jobs report
Cryptocurrency assets bore the brunt of a liquidity reassessment triggered by robust American employment data. While Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged past the historic 58,000 threshold amid domestic political momentum and the broader Asia Pacific index touched a record high, digital asset markets retreated two per cent to a US$2.3 trillion valuation.
This divergence underscores a fundamental reality I have observed throughout market cycles. When the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory shifts, risk assets with the highest duration sensitivity are affected first and most severely. Cryptocurrencies continue to trade as premium risk instruments tethered to global liquidity conditions despite persistent narratives of independence.
The catalyst came from January’s US nonfarm payrolls report, which reported 130,000 new jobs, nearly double economists’ median forecast. This figure alone recalibrated market pricing for Federal Reserve action, pushing anticipated rate cuts from June into July 2026. Traditional equity markets reacted with restraint, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closing nearly flat. Crypto markets exhibited a 68 per cent correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index and absorbed the shock with characteristic volatility. This statistical linkage confirms what seasoned observers recognise.
Digital assets function less as an inflation hedge and more as a leveraged bet on expansive monetary policy. When the prospect of cheaper capital recedes, speculative positioning unwinds rapidly. The two per cent decline in market cap represents not a fundamental rejection of blockchain technology but a mechanical repricing of future cash flows under tighter financial conditions.
Compounding this macro-driven pressure, derivatives markets amplified the downturn through forced liquidations. Bitcoin alone saw US$188 million in long-position liquidations in 24 hours, a 130 per cent surge that transformed a measured pullback into a sharp correction. These cascading liquidations reveal the fragility embedded in leveraged crypto trading ecosystems.
When price momentum reverses, algorithmic liquidation engines accelerate selling pressure beyond organic market depth, creating self-reinforcing downward spirals. This dynamic operates independently of underlying project fundamentals, punishing even robust protocols alongside speculative ventures. The phenomenon reflects a structural vulnerability in digital asset markets that persists despite a decade of maturation. Excessive leverage remains the accelerant that turns policy shifts into panic.
Sentiment metrics further illustrate the psychological dimension of this retreat. The market-wide fear and greed index plunged to eight, registering extreme fear across participant cohorts. Such readings typically emerge during capitulation phases when retail investors abandon positions after sustained losses. Historically, these moments often coincide with short-term bottoms and also signal prolonged recovery periods ahead. Extreme fear does not reverse instantaneously. It requires sustained positive catalysts to rebuild confidence.
Currently, no such catalyst exists on the immediate horizon. Investors face a rising probability of a US government shutdown to 84 per cent ahead of the February 14 deadline, introducing fiscal uncertainty that compounds concerns about monetary tightening. This dual pressure on both fiscal and monetary fronts creates an unusually constrained environment for risk assets.
Technical structure now determines the near-term trajectory. The US$2.17 trillion market capitalisation represents this year’s low and serves as critical psychological and algorithmic support. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger additional liquidations targeting the 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement near US$2.4 trillion.
Current positioning suggests markets may stabilise above the yearly low if macro conditions do not deteriorate further. Any sustained recovery requires reclaiming momentum toward the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci resistance at US$2.86 trillion. This level demands either a dovish pivot from central banks or significant organic capital inflows. Neither scenario appears imminent, given the Fed’s data-dependent stance and persistent institutional caution toward digital assets.
I view this correction as a necessary recalibration rather than a structural breakdown. Crypto markets have expanded dramatically since the previous cycle, attracting capital that entered during periods of abundant liquidity. As monetary conditions normalise, weaker hands exit, concentrating ownership among long-term holders with higher conviction.
This consolidation phase, though painful in the short term, often precedes more sustainable growth trajectories. The current market cap of US$2.3 trillion still reflects substantial institutional adoption compared to prior cycles, suggesting foundational demand remains intact despite tactical withdrawals.
Tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index report looms as the next pivotal data point. Should inflation show unexpected moderation, markets might reprice rate cut expectations forward, providing temporary relief. I remain sceptical that one data release will override the Fed’s commitment to ensuring inflation remains anchored.
The central bank has consistently prioritised credibility over market comfort, and recent communications suggest officials welcome some financial tightening to reinforce their anti-inflation resolve. Crypto markets must therefore navigate an extended period of constrained liquidity rather than anticipating imminent policy relief.
The path forward demands discernment between cyclical pressure and secular decline. Digital assets face genuine headwinds from tighter monetary policy, but their underlying utility continues expanding across payments, identity, and programmable finance. The current two per cent drawdown represents a liquidity-driven adjustment within a maturing asset class, not a verdict on blockchain’s long-term viability. Investors who recognise this distinction will view periods of extreme fear not as exit signals but as opportunities to accumulate quality assets at discounted valuations.
Markets ultimately reward patience during liquidity droughts, though the duration of such periods remains unpredictable. For now, preservation of capital and selective positioning offer wiser strategies than either panic selling or aggressive leverage. The US$2.3 trillion market cap reflects a market in transition, shedding speculative excess while retaining its core value proposition for those willing to endure the volatility inherent in technological transformation.
Source: https://e27.co/crypto-market-cap-drops-to-us2-3t-as-fed-rate-cut-hopes-fade-after-hot-jobs-report-20260212/
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