After the latest pullback, Bitcoin's structure looks very different, - and according to on-chain analyst James Check, the risk-reward balance has quietly flipped.
Speaking on the What Bitcoin Did with host Danny Knowles, Check explained that Bitcoin has entered what multiple valuation models describe as deep value territory. Losses during the drop resembled capitulation levels not seen since the 2022 cycle bottom â a zone historically associated with long-term opportunity.
His view is simple: unless Bitcoin is heading to zero (which he clearly does not suggest), the current setup is statistically asymmetric in favor of upside. In fact, he estimates the probability that a meaningful bottom has already formed at around 60%.
However, expectations should stay realistic. A fresh all-time high this year would likely require a major macro shift.
On ETFs, he described recent outflows as positioning adjustments â not structural breakdown. And as for the four-year halving cycle? He considers it an unnecessary bias for timing the market.
This isnât a time to panic â itâs a time to pay attention.
