1. Market Structure Overview (1H)

Current Price: ~$13.79

Trend: Clearly bearish (price continuously lower highs + lower lows bana raha hai)

Structure:

Price ne $18.50 → $17 → $16 → $15 → $14 har zone se rejection liya.

Latest low $13.57 ban chuka hai → sellers still in control.

Chart par clear downtrend channel chal raha hai.

Price abhi downtrend ke lower zone ke paas trade ho raha hai → potential bounce area.

Trend Rewrite Conditions:

Bullish reversal tabhi hoga jab LINK $15.20–$15.40 zone ke upar close kare.

Agar price $13.60 se niche close hota hai, to next strong correction aayegi.


2. Moving Averages (MA7, MA25, MA99)

Chart ke MA values:

MA(7) → ~14.19

MA(25) → ~14.38

MA(99) → ~18.17

Interpretation:

MA(7) < MA(25) → short-term bearish momentum

Price MA(25) ke niche → sellers ka control

MA(99) bahut upar → long-term trend still bearish

Agar price MA(25) reclaim karta hai (≈ $14.30+), tabhi recovery start hogi.

3. RSI (Relative Strength Index)

(Estimated based on price structure)

RSI ≈ 38–45 zone

Means: oversold ke near, selling pressure high

RSI < 40 → short-term bearish

RSI > 50 → reversal signal start

Oversold bounce possible, but trend still weak.



4. MACD (Momentum Analysis)

MACD line Signal ke niche → bearish crossover active

Histogram deep red → momentum strong bearish

Momentum slow hone me time lagega jab tak price 14.5–15 reclaim na kare

MACD still supports downtrend continuation



5. Volume Analysis

Volume last 48 hours me reduce hua → weakness confirm

Only high volume candle sell-based thi near $15

Volume low hote hi price drift karke $13.70 tak aa gaya

$13.50–13.70 zone per thoda accumulation visible

Buyers $13.50–13.60 zone se hi defend kar rahe hain—this is important.



6. Key Levels (Important Zones)

Resistance:


$14.30 → MA25 resistance

$15.20–$15.40 → trend reversal zone

$16.00 → next strong selling level

Support:

$13.60 → immediate support

$13.20 → next strong support

$12.80–$12.50 → major support (long-term buyers area)

7. Next Move Prediction

Bullish Scenario (40% Probability)

Price $13.50–13.70 zone hold karta hai

RSI oversold → bounce possible

Break above $14.30 (MA25) = mini breakout

Resistance targets:

$14.60

  • $15.20

    $15.80

    Confirmation: Candle close above $14.30


Bearish Scenario (60% Probability)

Price $13.57 low retest karega

Break below $13.50 = next leg down

Targets:

  • $13.20

    $12.80

    $12.50

    Confirmation: 1-hour candle close below $13.50

Short-Term Trading Plan

BUY (Bounce Trade)

Entry: $13.60–13.75

Targets: $14.10 → $14.40 → $14.80

Stop Loss: $13.49


BUY on Breakout

Entry: Above $14.30

Targets: $15.20 → $15.60 → $16.00

Stop Loss: $13.90

SELL (Breakdown Trade)

Entry: Below $13.50

Targets: $13.20 → $12.80

Stop Loss: $13.80

Summary:

Trend: Strong bearish on 1-hour

Indicators: RSI oversold, MACD bearish

Key zone: $13.50–13.70 = make or break level

Reversal only above $14.30 → $15.40

Breakdown below $13.50 = next big drop