🔴 Scenario 1: Short (Primary Bias)
Conditions:
Price retraces into 1.55 – 1.58
Bearish confirmation appears:
Lower-timeframe CHOCH (5m/15m)
Or Rejection wick candles / Bearish Engulfing
OI remains flat or decreases during the retracement
Invalidation:
1H candle closes above 1.58 with rising volume and OI
Targets:
TP1: 1.522 (POC)
TP2: 1.503
TP3: 1.447 (if bearish continuation confirms)
1️⃣ Market Structure
On the H1 timeframe, the market remains in a bearish / distribution structure.
A prior bullish CHOCH occurred from the ~1.45 area, driving price toward ~1.60.
However, the upside move failed to continue, showing weak follow-through.
From the ~1.60 high:
Price formed a Lower High
Followed by a bearish BOS
Price has since rotated back into the mid-range around 1.52, without forming any new bullish CHOCH.
Structure conclusion:
H1 bias remains bearish. The current price action represents consolidation within a bearish context, not a confirmed reversal.
2️⃣ Key Price Zones
🔴 Supply / Premium Zones
1.585 – 1.616
Previous High
Previous distribution area
High-probability zone for short continuation or swing shorts
1.548 – 1.566
Minor supply
Reactive zone suitable for lower-timeframe short setups
🔵 Demand / Discount Zones
1.504 – 1.485
PDL + high-volume node
Acts as a short-term balance area
1.446 – 1.430
Strong Low
Major sell-side liquidity resting below
Current positioning:
Price is trading inside the value area, not at an extreme. Risk–reward is unfavorable for aggressive entries.
3️⃣ Volume, Open Interest & Funding Rate
📉 Volume
The impulse move down from ~1.60 showed higher relative sell volume
Recent consolidation candles show declining volume
Bullish candles lack volume expansion → no real demand stepping in
📊 Volume Profile
Point of Control (POC): 1.518 – 1.527
Price is continuously accepted around POC, indicating value trading
No signs of strong initiative buying or selling
📉 Open Interest (OI)
OI has been steadily declining
Indicates:
Position unwinding
Lack of fresh leverage entering the market
This environment is not supportive of squeeze conditions
💰 Funding Rate
Funding remains slightly positive (~+0.0076%)
Longs are paying shorts
Positioning bias leans mildly long, but not at extreme levels
OI + Funding takeaway:
The market is in a weak participation phase, leaning slightly bearish, with no leverage imbalance to force a squeeze.
4️⃣ Trade Scenarios
🔴 Scenario 1: Short (Primary Bias)
Conditions:
Price retraces into 1.55 – 1.58
Bearish confirmation appears:
Lower-timeframe CHOCH (5m/15m)
Or Rejection wick candles / Bearish Engulfing
OI remains flat or decreases during the retracement
Invalidation:
1H candle closes above 1.58 with rising volume and OI
Targets:
TP1: 1.522 (POC)
TP2: 1.503
TP3: 1.447 (if bearish continuation confirms)
🟡 Scenario 2: Long (Conditional & Defensive)
Not recommended at current levels.
Long setups only become valid if:
Price sweeps sell-side liquidity below 1.50
Followed by strong bullish displacement
Clear bullish CHOCH on H1 or M15
OI expansion + funding remains neutral or low
🧠 Summary
Primary bias: Bearish
Market state: Range-bound within distribution
OI declining + mild positive funding = weak market
No sell-side liquidity sweep yet
Best strategy: Wait for price to reach premium or discount zones
This is a market for patience and precision, not prediction.
#trading #TradingSignal #futures
✍️ Written by @CryptoTradeSmart
Crypto Insights | Trading Perspectives
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
NOT financial advice. Perpetuals trading is high risk - you can lose your entire capital. This is my personal setup for educational purposes only. Always DYOR, use strict risk management, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. You are solely responsible for your decisions.
Trade safe! 🎯