#dusk $DUSK

US Jobs Data: A Weak End to 2025 Signals Caution for 2026

As of January 11, 2026, the latest US jobs report for December 2025, released on January 9, has solidified concerns about a cooling labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by a modest 50,000 jobs, below economists’ expectations of around 60,000–73,000. This capped off 2025 with total job gains of just 584,000—the weakest annual performance outside of recession years since 2003, and a sharp decline from the 2 million jobs added in 2024. #USJobsData

The unemployment rate provided a sliver of relief, dipping to 4.4% from a revised 4.5% in November, as the broader U-6 measure (including discouraged workers and those in part-time roles for economic reasons) eased to 8.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month, pushing annual wage growth to 3.8%—outpacing inflation and offering some support to consumer spending.

Sector Breakdown and Key Drivers

Gains were heavily concentrated: Healthcare and social assistance drove much of the growth, adding around 713,000 jobs for the year—accounting for nearly all private-sector gains when combined with other resilient areas like food services. In contrast:

•  Manufacturing lost 68,000 jobs in 2025, hit by tariffs and automation.

•  Professional and business services shed 97,000.

•  Retail trade and construction saw declines in December.

•  Federal government employment dropped significantly due to staffing cuts and buyouts.

This “no hire, no fire” dynamic—characterized by hiring freezes, AI integration, and policy uncertainty—has left the market in a freeze. Excluding healthcare, private-sector growth was nearly flat, highlighting vulnerabilities in tariff-exposed and tech-adjacent sectors.

Broader Economic Context

2025’s labor slowdown was exacerbated by a prolonged federal government shutdown that disrupted data collection (notably skipping October household survey estimates) and contributed to revisions downward in prior months. Tariffs, immigration reforms, and AI