The Supreme Court is on the verge of a "blockbuster" ruling on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (#IEEPA ) used by the Trump administration to levy global tariffs. Current prediction markets (Polymarket) are pricing in a 76% probability that these tariffs will be declared an unconstitutional overreach of executive power
While some see a "tariff-free" world as bullish, the immediate macro implications are chaotic:
The Refund Shock: We aren't just talking about stopping future tariffs. Legal experts estimate a mandatory "payback" of $133B to $200B in refunds to major importers like Costco and Revlon.
Treasury Liquidity Drain: To fund these refunds, the Treasury may be forced to spike issuance. This would likely push 10-year yields higher, creating a massive headwind for both equities and crypto.
The "Liquidity Vacuum": If the Court orders immediate restitution, the sudden shift in capital flows could trigger a "sell everything" moment as markets price in a massive fiscal deficit expansion.
This isn't just a policy shift—it’s a systemic liquidity event.
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