Latest Views from Capriole on Bitcoin
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What Triggered Bitcoin's First-Ever Decoupling From Global Liquidity?
Today
CoinGape
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Capriole Founder Warns of a Drop Below $50K by 2028
Dec 14, 2025
Cryptonews
Capriole Founder Says Bitcoin’s ‘Energy Value’ Puts Price at $167.8K
Aug 14, 2025
TradingView
Capriole Founder Not Bearish On Bitcoin Despite Headwinds—Here’s Why
Dec 14, 2025
ForkLog
Expert Observes Waning Institutional Interest in Bitcoin | ForkLog
Nov 4, 2025
📌 1. Bitcoin’s Decoupling from Global Liquidity
Edwards recently highlighted that Bitcoin’s price performance has diverged from traditional money supply growth — a first-ever decoupling from global M2 liquidity — and he suggests one driver may be institutional concern over technological risks like quantum computing. This is a structural observation about how BTC is behaving differently than in prior cycles.
📈 2. *Bullish Valuation Metrics — “Energy Value”
He uses a proprietary metric that values Bitcoin based on network energy and fundamentals, placing fair value much higher than current prices (e.g., potential $130K-$167K range). This reflects a long-term belief that the market may be undervaluing BTC relative to its intrinsic network strength.
🚫 3. *Risks & Caution: Quantum Threat and Long-Term Downside
At the same time, Edwards has warned of structural risks — notably that if Bitcoin doesn’t implement quantum-resistant upgrades soon, its price could fall significantly, potentially below $50,000 by 2028. This stems from concerns that advanced quantum computing could undermine cryptographic security.
🤝 4. *Not Bearish Despite Headwinds
Even with some negative indicators (e.g., stagnation around psychological price levels or institutional shifts), Edwards has said he cannot be bearish on Bitcoin overall because key technical and on-chain indicators remain in bullish territory.
📉 5. *Institutional Interest Dynamics
Edwards also has noted diminishing or shifting institutional demand at times, including periods where institutional purchases fell below certain supportive thresholds — a factor he sees as important for Bitcoin’s growth trajectory.
🔎 What This Means for Bitcoin’s Growth Narrative
Bullish Signals
Underlying network metrics suggest Bitcoin is structurally strong and may be undervalued compared to its “energy value.”
Some macro and on-chain models still point toward future upside if demand returns or intensifies.
Key Risks Highlighted
A genuine technological risk (like quantum computing) could, if unaddressed, weaken confidence and price over the medium to long term.
Institutional flows and demand patterns — historically bullish drivers — have shown episodic weakness or shifts that could suppress growth.
Balanced Take
Edwards’ views are not purely bullish or bearish — he mixes valuations that imply long-term potential with structural cautions about evolving technological and demand-side risks. That reflects a nuanced outlook: long-term value exists, but execution and external risks matter.