$BTC is currently trading around 95,079 after a strong impulse up to ~97,932 and a pullback into a tight consolidation range.
This is a classic “re-accumulation / distribution” zone, where the market builds liquidity on both sides before the next expansion.
1) Higher Timeframe Context (1D / 4H)
✅ 1D Structure
BTC had a bullish expansion from the ~84,4K low into the ~97,9K high, then started pulling back.
This is normal after a major push: market often pauses to:
take profits
trap late longs
build liquidity for the next move
Key HTF liquidity:
Buy-side liquidity above: 97.9K highs (where breakout buyers will get excited)
Sell-side liquidity below: mid-zone / prior consolidation lows (where stops sit)
✅ 4H Structure
On 4H, BTC is no longer trending cleanly — it’s forming a range below the recent highs.
This range is important because it often creates one of two outcomes:
✅ Sweep down → reversal up (bull continuation)
or
✅ Sweep up → dump (bull trap / distribution)
Right now price is sitting near the middle-lower part of that range.
2) Intraday Structure (1H / 15m)
✅ 1H
BTC is consolidating below 96K with multiple small reactions and no clear continuation candle yet.
That tells us one thing:
📌 Market is collecting orders (liquidity) — not ready to trend yet.
The most likely next move is a liquidity sweep (fake breakout) before the real direction.
✅ 15m
15m shows a push up, then a sharp drop and weak recovery — meaning:
buyers tried to continue
sellers absorbed the move
price returned into the range
This is a typical “setup-building” phase.
3) Short-Term Microstructure (1m)
On 1m, BTC printed a quick dump and slow grind — this looks like:
stop-run behavior
controlled movement (low urgency)
market waiting for a bigger trigger
📌 This is NOT a clean entry zone yet.
The best setups come after the sweep + structure confirmation.
4) Price Forecast
✅ Most probable scenario (next 6–24h)
BTC will likely do one more sweep before expansion:
➡️ Either:
Sweep below local lows (stop hunt) and then rally
or
Sweep above local highs (trap longs) and then drop
So the real forecast is:
first: liquidity grab → then: real trend move
5) Trade Setups
✅ SETUP A (Preferred): LONG after Sell-Side Sweep
This is the highest-quality bullish setup.
Conditions (must happen)
✅ 1) BTC sweeps below 95,000 → 94,800 zone (takes stops)
✅ 2) Strong reclaim back above 95,100–95,200
✅ 3) 15m BOS up (break of structure)
✅ 4) Entry on retest
✅ 5) Impulse candle + volume expansion
Targets
🎯 TP1: 95,650–96,000
🎯 TP2: 96,700–97,300
🎯 TP3 (liquidity): 97,900–98,000
Invalidation
🛑 Clean break and hold below 94,630
📊 Probability: 70–75% (only with confirmation of downtrend)
✅ SETUP B: SHORT after Buy-Side Sweep (Bull Trap)
If BTC grabs the highs first and fails — that’s a short opportunity.
Conditions (must happen)
✅ 1) Sweep above 95,620 → 96,000
✅ 2) Sharp rejection back under 95,600
✅ 3) 15m CHoCH down
✅ 4) Retest bearish from below
✅ 5) Strong bearish continuation candle
Targets
🎯 TP1: 95,000
🎯 TP2: 94,630
🎯 TP3: 93,700–92,600 (if full expansion)
Invalidation
🛑 Hold above 96,000+ with continuation
📊 Probability: 70% (only after CHoCH)
6) What NOT to Do ❌
Don’t trade in the middle of the range (worst RR + most traps)
Don’t chase breakout candles
Don’t force entries without confirmation
Don’t ignore liquidity sweeps (BTC loves stop hunts)
7) Quick Checklist (My Rule for BTC Trades)
✅ Sweep → ✅ BOS/CHoCH → ✅ Retest OB/FVG → ✅ Expansion → ✅ Targets at Liquidity
If one element is missing → no trade.
Call to Audience 📣
Are you waiting for confirmation… or still entering BTC based on emotions?
💬 Comment “LONG” if you think BTC sweeps down first and pumps
💬 Comment “SHORT” if you expect a bull trap above 96K
And I’ll post an updated plan with the exact trigger candle + entry zone.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto trading is high-risk. Always manage risk and trade responsibly.
