The Fed just dropped fresh macro data — and it’s far worse than markets were positioned for.
We’re moving toward a global market breakdown, and most people don’t even realize it yet.
This is deeply bearish.
If you’re holding risk assets right now, you’re probably not going to like what comes next.
What’s happening under the surface is not normal.
A systemic funding issue is quietly building, and almost nobody is prepared for it.
The Fed is already in reaction mode.
• Balance sheet expanded by ~$105B
• Standing Repo Facility injected $74.6B
• Mortgage-backed securities jumped $43.1B
• Treasuries? Just $31.5B
This is not bullish QE.
This is emergency liquidity.
Funding tightened. Banks needed cash. And they needed it immediately.
When the Fed is absorbing more MBS than Treasuries, that’s a warning sign.
It signals declining collateral quality.
That only happens during stress.
Now zoom out — because this is the part most people are ignoring.
U.S. national debt is at record highs — not cyclically, structurally.
Over $34 trillion, rising faster than GDP.
Interest costs are exploding and becoming one of the largest line items in the federal budget.
The U.S. is now issuing debt just to pay interest on existing debt.
That’s a debt spiral.
At this stage, Treasuries aren’t truly “risk-free.”
They’re a confidence trade.
And confidence is starting to crack.
Foreign buyers are stepping back.
Domestic buyers are extremely price-sensitive.
Which leaves only one buyer standing.
The Fed — quietly becoming the buyer of last resort.
That’s why funding stress matters so much right now.
You can’t sustain record debt while funding markets tighten.
You can’t run trillion-dollar deficits as collateral quality deteriorates.
And you can’t keep pretending this is normal.
And this isn’t just a U.S. issue.
China is facing the same problem — at the same time.
The PBoC injected 1.02 trillion yuan in a single week via reverse repos.
Different country.
Same disease.
Too much debt.
Not enough trust.
A global system built on rolling liabilities nobody truly wants to hold.
When both the U.S. and China are forced to inject liquidity simultaneously, that’s not stimulus.
That’s the financial plumbing starting to clog.
Markets always misread this phase.
They see liquidity and think “bullish.”
They’re wrong.
This isn’t about pumping prices.
It’s about keeping funding alive.
And when funding breaks, everything else becomes a trap.
The sequence never changes:
• Bonds move first
• Funding markets show stress
• Equities ignore it — until they can’t
• Crypto takes the hardest hit
Now look at the signal that actually matters.
Gold at all-time highs.
Silver at all-time highs.
This isn’t growth.
This isn’t inflation.
This is capital rejecting sovereign debt.
Money is leaving paper promises and moving into hard collateral.
That doesn’t happen in healthy systems.
We’ve seen this setup before:
→ 2000 before the dot-com crash
→ 2008 before the GFC
→ 2020 before the repo market froze
Every time, recession followed shortly after.
The Fed is trapped.
Print aggressively — and metals explode, signaling loss of control.
Don’t print — and funding markets seize while debt becomes unserviceable.
Risk assets can ignore reality for a while.
But never forever.
This isn’t a normal cycle.
This is a quiet balance-sheet, collateral, and sovereign debt crisis forming in real time.
By the time it becomes obvious, most people will already be positioned wrong.
Position yourself wisely if you want to survive into 2026.
I’ve been calling major tops and bottoms for over a decade.
When I make my next move, I’ll post it here first.
If you’re not following yet — you probably should.
Before it’s too late.
