Bitcoin ($BTC) has retraced sharply from its late 2025 highs of ~$126k, prompting the question: Is the bull cycle over?
Institutional analysis indicates we are not in a bear market, but a "Liquidity Trap" a mid-cycle pause before the final institutional leg up.
📅 The Timeline:
When is the Reversal? Research indicates Q2 2026 (April-June) as the main reversal period.
The Catalyst: The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on March 17-18, 2026, is anticipated to provide the liquidity pivot necessary to weaken the dollar and advance risk assets .
The Driver: Global M2 (money supply) is forecasted to go positive in the spring, initiating the "Institutional Supercycle" as outlined by Grayscale and Coinbase .
📊 Key Levels to Watch:
🛡️ Critical Support ($73,500): This is the “line in the sand.” BTC must hold this level (2021/2024 ATH) to keep the supercycle narrative alive.
⚔️ Reversal Confirmation ($92,000): Daily close above this level confirms the correction is over.
💡 The Verdict: Q1 2026 is a test of patience. The market is clearing retail leverage before the “Real Liquidity Cycle” starts. Pay attention to volatility around ETHDenver (Feb 17-21) as a sentiment indicator before the March macro pivot.