bankofjapan

Globalne rynki przygotowują się na historyczną podwyżkę stóp w Japonii! 🌏📈

💥 Przełomowy ruch po 17 latach! 💥
Ostatnie raporty wskazują, że duża większość członków komitetu polityki Banku Japonii rozważa znaczną podwyżkę stóp procentowych do 0,5% podczas nadchodzącego posiedzenia. Ta zmiana przyniesie najwyższy poziom stóp od niemal dwóch dekad, co może wstrząsnąć globalnym rynkiem finansowym.

Co jest na szali?

📅 Nadchodzące spotkanie: Posiedzenie Banku Japonii jest zaplanowane na przyszły czwartek i piątek.

📅 December 13 | Japan
While many crypto investors are looking with relief at the rate cuts in the United States, a silent threat is emerging from Asia. The Bank of Japan is preparing to raise interest rates to levels not seen in three decades, a move that has historically caused turbulence in global markets and sharp corrections in Bitcoin.

📖The Bank of Japan is reportedly poised to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, from 0.50% to 0.75%, according to Nikkei reports. If this adjustment is finalized on December 19, it would place Japanese rates at their highest level in approximately 30 years. While the increase may seem small, its potential impact extends far beyond Japan and could directly affect Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Historically, the yen's movements have had a clear correlation with Bitcoin's price. When the yen strengthens, global liquidity conditions tighten, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies tend to suffer. Conversely, a weak yen has coincided with periods of increased risk appetite. Currently, the yen is trading near 156 per dollar, showing slight strength compared to its levels at the end of November.
The main channel through which the impact is transmitted is the so-called “carry trade.” For decades, hedge funds and large trading desks have borrowed yen at extremely low rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as US technology stocks, Treasury bonds, and, more recently, cryptocurrencies. If Japanese interest rates rise, this strategy becomes less attractive, which could lead to a withdrawal of capital from risky assets and a general increase in risk aversion.
This scenario is not theoretical. The last time the Bank of Japan raised rates, on July 31, 2014, the yen strengthened rapidly, and the markets reacted strongly. In early August of that year, Bitcoin fell from around $65,000 to nearly $50,000 in a sharp move that many attributed to the closing of carry trades and reduced global liquidity.
However, some analysts believe this time could be different. First, speculators already hold net long positions in the yen, reducing the likelihood of a sharp and immediate reaction following the BoJ's decision. In 2024, the situation was the opposite: the market was largely bearish on the yen, which amplified the move when rates rose.
Furthermore, Japanese bond yields have been rising throughout the year, reaching multi-decade highs across various segments of the curve. This suggests that the market has already largely priced in the rate hike and that the BoJ's decision would simply align official policy with what prices already reflect.
The international context also favors a more moderate reaction. Just this week, the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to their lowest level in three years, and introduced additional liquidity measures. As a result, the dollar index fell to a seven-week low, helping to offset Japan's monetary tightening.

Topic Opinion:
The Bank of Japan has been a key source of global liquidity for decades, and any change in its policy always warrants attention. That said, the market appears better prepared than in 2024 and has the backing of a more accommodative Federal Reserve.
💬 Do you think the Bank of Japan could trigger another major Bitcoin crash?

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