hedera

Hedera’s native token HBAR enters February 2026 under significant pressure following a sharp, market-wide correction. Since mid-January, HBAR has declined by nearly 35%, with selling momentum accelerating during the broader crypto sell-off between January 21 and February 1.
Measured from its November peak, HBAR is now down more than 40%, while short-term momentum indicators continue to reflect weakness. Despite this, a combination of chart structure, money flow data, and long-term accumulation signals suggests that a recovery scenario cannot yet be ruled out.
Whether HBAR can transition from correction to rebound now depends on volume confirmation, capital flows, and how price reacts around critical support zones.
Falling Wedge Structure and Money Flow Suggest Dip Buyers Remain Active
Despite the recent sell-off, HBAR’s broader technical structure remains relatively constructive.
Since late October 2025, price action has been confined within a falling wedge pattern. This structure is characterized by lower highs and lower lows that gradually converge, often signaling weakening selling pressure over time. Importantly, even after the sharp January decline, HBAR has not broken down from this wedge, keeping the medium-term recovery thesis intact.
Supporting this view, money flow indicators continue to show signs of underlying accumulation.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks whether capital is entering or exiting an asset, has formed a clear bullish divergence since late December. Between December 30 and February 2, HBAR’s price trended lower, while CMF steadily moved higher. This divergence indicates that capital inflows persisted despite falling prices, a classic signal of quiet accumulation.
Although CMF recently slipped below its rising trendline and briefly dipped under the zero level, it remains close to neutral. This suggests selling pressure has increased, but not enough to fully invalidate the prior accumulation trend.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) tells a similar story. Since late November, HBAR’s price has continued to trend downward, while MFI has made higher lows. This pattern implies that traders have consistently bought dips for more than two months. Recently, MFI has started curling upward again and currently sits near 41. A move above 54 would form a higher high, significantly strengthening the bullish divergence.
Taken together, CMF and MFI suggest that dip buyers remain active, and capital has not fully exited the market despite the deep correction. This supports the idea that HBAR is still in a potential accumulation phase within the falling wedge.
However, for a sustainable recovery to take shape, price needs confirmation from volume — and that is where risks begin to emerge.
OBV Breakdown and Spot Flow Shift Raise Short-Term Concerns
While money flow indicators remain constructive, volume-based data paints a more cautious picture.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, which measures whether trading volume confirms price movements, has continued to weaken. Since October, OBV has trended lower, signaling distribution rather than strong accumulation. On January 29, OBV broke below a key descending trendline, confirming a bearish divergence.
This suggests that recent price recoveries have not been supported by strong volume, limiting upside momentum.
Spot flow data further reinforces this concern.
From late October through January, HBAR recorded consistent weekly net outflows, with more tokens leaving exchanges than entering them. This nearly 14-week streak reflected steady accumulation during the correction, aligning with the bullish MFI divergence discussed earlier.
However, this trend recently ended.
During the week of February 2, HBAR posted its first meaningful net inflow since October, totaling approximately $749,000. This marked a shift from sustained accumulation toward potential distribution or selling readiness. The timing of this inflow aligns closely with the OBV breakdown, strengthening the case that market absorption of supply has weakened.
Without renewed net outflows and stronger volume support, any upside attempts may struggle to gain traction or could fade quickly.
Key HBAR Price Levels to Watch in February
With mixed signals across technical and on-chain indicators, price levels now become the decisive factor.
On the downside, $0.076 remains the most critical support. As long as HBAR holds above this level and money flow indicators continue to stabilize or improve, rebound attempts remain possible.
A decisive break below $0.076, however, would confirm sellers regaining control — a scenario already hinted at by weakening OBV. In that case, downside targets open near $0.062, followed by a deeper support zone around $0.043.
On the upside, the first meaningful resistance lies near $0.090. This level has capped rallies throughout January and represents short-term supply pressure. A successful reclaim would signal early confidence returning, especially if accompanied by improving OBV.
Beyond that, the major technical hurdle stands at $0.107. A sustained move above this level would confirm a breakout from the falling wedge, activating the pattern’s measured target. In theory, this breakout could open the door to a potential 50%+ upside over time, though this remains a longer-term and lower-probability scenario given current volume conditions.
Final Thoughts
HBAR remains caught between constructive accumulation signals and weakening volume confirmation. While money flow indicators suggest dip buyers are still present, the recent break in a three-month accumulation streak introduces meaningful uncertainty.
As February unfolds, the market’s response around key support and resistance levels will likely determine whether HBAR transitions into recovery — or extends its corrective phase.
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects personal market observations. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research and take full responsibility for their decisions.
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🚀 HBAR: "CÚ SẬP" HAY LÀ CƠ HỘI LÀM GIÀU? ĐỪNG ĐỂ BỊ RƠI HÀNG! 💎
Trong khi đám đông đang hoảng loạn vì HBAR giảm 15% về mức $0,089, các "cá mập" đang làm gì? Họ đang âm thầm gom hàng! 🐋
Dưới đây là 3 lý do tại sao đợt điều chỉnh này chỉ là "tiếng vang" từ cú sụt hầm của Bitcoin (<$80k) chứ không phải do nội tại Hedera yếu kém:
1️⃣ Tín hiệu "Bàn tay kim cương" (CMF Divergence) 💹
Chỉ số Chaikin Money Flow đang cho thấy một sự thật thú vị: Giá giảm nhưng dòng tiền vào lại TĂNG. Đây là sự phân kỳ tăng giá kinh điển – dấu hiệu cho thấy lực mua đang âm thầm hấp thụ hết lực bán.
2️⃣ RSI "Cháy máy" - Vùng quá bán cực độ 📉
Chỉ số RSI đã rơi xuống dưới 30. Lịch sử cho thấy, mỗi khi HBAR chạm ngưỡng này, một đợt bật nảy (rebound) mạnh mẽ thường theo sau. Đây là lúc người chơi hệ "bắt đáy" bắt đầu hành động!
3️⃣ Mô hình Nêm Giảm Mở Rộng: Target +43% 🎯
HBAR đang di chuyển trong một mô hình kỹ thuật cực đẹp. Nếu breakout thành công:
✅ Mục tiêu 1: $0,103 (Kháng cự tâm lý) ✅ Mục tiêu 2: $0,114 (Vùng thanh khoản) 🚀 Target tối thượng: $0,146 (Tương đương mức tăng 43%!)
⚠️ Chiến thuật: Theo dõi sát mốc $0,103. Một khi HBAR lấy lại được mốc này, cuộc chơi chính thức bắt đầu!
CÒN BẠN THÌ SAO?
Bạn chọn "cắt lỗ" hay "tích lũy" thêm HBAR ở mức giá này? Để lại ý kiến bên dưới nhé! 👇

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$HBAR