🔚 We are now back at pre election prices and sentiment feels like nonstop selling ,What if I told you this bear market is basically over already ,Weekly RSI is below 30, which historically only happens near major cycle bottoms, While price can continue lower even after RSI climbs back above 30, this is not the time to be looking for shorts or panic selling spot. It is quite literally the opposite ,Considering how quickly price has declined, over 50 percent off the highs, this bear market will likely be much shorter in time than usual ↩️⬇️
We have the 200W SMA sitting near $58K, along with multiple support layers into the 50Ks and even the 40Ks. On the monthly, the 50M SMA is near $57K, and the lower monthly Bollinger band is near $54K, a level BTC has never traded below in its entire existence. With this in mind, downside is becoming extremely limited. Without limit orders, it will be nearly impossible to buy the true bottom given the volatility ↩️⬇️
⬆️ Moving away from BTC priced in USD, look at BTC priced in real money, gold. Bitcoin priced in gold made its ATH in December 2024 and has failed to make a new high since. It has been in a steady downtrend for roughly 14 months assuming February closes red. Historically, bear markets in BTC priced in gold last around 13 to 14 months and have never extended beyond that. This suggests February should mark the final month of this downtrend, at least in BTC vs gold terms. There is a possibility BTC continues lower in USD, but that would likely imply gold underperforms BTC for the remainder of 2026.
⬆️ Structurally, BTC is also forming an extremely similar pattern to Google after its 2021 top. Google had a brutal 45 percent drawdown in 2022, then recovered into 2024 and consolidated at its 2021 highs. BTC had a deeper drawdown of around 70 percent, but also recovered to its 2021 highs and consolidated for roughly 7 months before breaking out. Google made new highs earlier than BTC, then saw a 23 percent correction that held just above the previous highs, similar to BTC’s April tariff crash that bottomed near $74K. After that pullback, Google went on to make new highs. Google then broke below its 50W SMA, fell back into the 2021 highs region, briefly wicked near the 200W SMA, and then entered full price discovery. BTC is now in the same phase, having lost the 50W SMA and pulling back into the 2021 highs zone while approaching the 200W SMA. Structurally, this is the same final shakeout before continuation that Google experienced
⬆️ As mentioned earlier, BTC has never traded below the lower monthly Bollinger band at $54K, and I believe that acts as a hard floor, even if price briefly deviates below the 200W SMA, which happens in nearly every bear cycle. This also aligns with a potential regime change at the Fed in 2026, with rate cuts and liquidity expansion likely. Money will be printed, money supply will increase, the Fed balance sheet will expand, and liquidity will flow into risk assets. I say risk assets loosely, because we have seen multiple double digit daily moves in gold and silver, assets people like to call safe havens.
Bottom line, this is not the time to be bearish. Liquidity conditions heavily favor upside over the medium term. Many OG holders have already exited, we are now back at price levels where institutions and governments are far more comfortable accumulating, and a large portion of the market has already capitulated. More may still capitulate, but that is exactly how bottoms are formed.
Is the bottom in at $60K? I have no idea and I am not trying to time it perfectly. All I know is we are in deep value territory, and this is where DCA makes sense on quality assets. I would not be surprised if this phase is where the crypto market matures and weak projects with no fundamentals get washed out, with liquidity rotating into assets that actually have real use cases. I am not trying to time a bottom in SOL either, because BTC will heavily dictate Solana’s direction, and I will be DCA’ing into both at the same time.
To summarize, we are down over 50 percent from the highs, reaching major long term support levels including the 200W SMA, lower monthly Bollinger band, 2021 highs, and the prior 8 month consolidation range. We are at historic bear market oversold levels on RSI, macro conditions point toward easing and growth rather than contraction, and BTC vs gold historical bear market timing of 13 to 14 months all suggest we are extremely close to a major bottom 👌
If you are buying garbage, I cannot help you ,But smart money is getting ready to load heavy on BTC, SOL, BNB ,and a few other high quality names here 👌
🚸 Warning 🚸 I do not provide financial advice 🔞The intent of this content is for you to be aware of market conditions before starting to invest 👌Thank you for reading 👌
#MarketCorrection #RiskAssetsMarketShock #JPMorganSaysBTCOverGold