🔁 Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle — History & Basics
Bitcoin historically har 4-year halving ke aas paas major cycles follow karta hai:
💹 Past Cycles:
🟢 Cycle 1: Halving Nov 2012 → Top Dec 2013 → Bottom Jan 2015 → Drop 🔻87%
🟢 Cycle 2: Halving July 2016 → Top Dec 2017 → Bottom Dec 2018 → Drop 🔻84%
🟢 Cycle 3: Halving May 2020 → Top Nov 2021 → Bottom Nov 2022 → Drop 🔻77%
Key Observations:
⏱ Halving → Supply shock → Bull run start
📈 Top → Crowd euphoria → Sell pressure
💔 Bottom → Fear + exhaustion → Smart accumulation
📊 Drop historically 70–85% from peak
⏳ Cycle duration (halving → bottom): ~3.5–4 years
Conclusion: Bitcoin ka behavior largely repeatable hai, but exact dates aur price vary karte hain.
2️⃣ Current Cycle (2024–2026)
📅 Important Dates:
🟢 Last Halving: April 2024 → Reward 6.25 → 3.125 BTC
🚀 Expected Top: $126k → 7-Oct-2025
💔 Expected Bottom: $35k – $55k → Oct–Dec 2026
🔄 Next Halving: April 2028 → Reward 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC
🔍 Market Psychology
🟢 Halving → Early Bull: Smart money enters, price gradually upar jaata hai
🔵 Euphoria / Top: Crowd FOMO, media hype, “easy money” phase
🔴 Capitulation / Panic: Price girta hai, retail panic selling
🟣 Bottom / Accumulation: Smart investors accumulate, market exhausted, fear highest
Important: Market bottom fear + exhaustion pe banta hai, not just price.
3️⃣ Expected Bear Market Drop
From top $126k:
💰 Expected Bottom Zone:
🟢 Conservative (60% drop) → $50k
🔵 Realistic (70% drop) → $38k
🔴 Aggressive (75% drop) → $31k
✅ Most likely bottom zone: $35k – $55k (Oct–Dec 2026)
4️⃣ Ladder/DCA Buying Strategy — Start $60k
Step-by-step accumulation is the safest approach:
💎 Ladder Buying Plan:
🟢 $60k–$55k → 20% budget → Start small
🟢 $55k–$50k → 20% budget → Accumulation phase
🔵 $50k–$45k → 25% budget → Strong buy
🔵 $45k–$40k → 25% budget → Near probable bottom
🔴 <$40k → 10% budget → Opportunistic buy
💡 Ladder Buying Tips:
🚫 Don’t chase bottom → Exact bottom impossible
✅ Step-by-step DCA → Average cost smooth hoti hai
💰 Profit plan ready rakho → Top se 30–50% secure
5️⃣ Realistic Long-Term Strategy
🟢 Now → Top 2025: Small monthly DCA
🔵 Top → Bear Market 2026: Heavy accumulation with ladder plan
🟣 Bottom → Next Cycle: Hold for next bull run (2027–2028)
🔄 Next Halving 2028: Repeat cycle
6️⃣ Key Takeaways
⏱ Bitcoin ka cycle largely predictable time + psychology se
🔻 Past cycles show 70–85% drops
💎 Ladder/DCA approach se risk reduce hota hai
💔 Market bottom fear + exhaustion phase me aata hai
📢 Noise ignore karo, cycle samajh lo, baar-baar poochne ki zarurat nahi
Agar ye guide helpful laga:
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