Most people won’t be ready for what’s coming. If you’re only watching price, you’re already late.
$BTC is repeating the same structural pattern we saw in 2017 and 2021. This is not a guess. This is cycle behavior. And every cycle, retail misses it for the same reason. They ignore time.
I track Bitcoin on two axes only: TIME and PRICE 📊⏱️
Most traders obsess over candles and indicators. That’s why they miss the best entries every single cycle.
Let’s start with the TIME axis, because this is where the real edge is.
After each halving, the number of days from ATH to cycle low has been remarkably consistent. In 2012 it was 406 days. In 2016 it was 363 days. In 2020 it was 376 days. The 2024 cycle is still playing out, but the pattern is obvious.
Because of this, the highest probability window for the next real bottom lands in October to November 2026 ⏳📉
When that window hits, I don’t care what the price looks like. I buy. Time is how you avoid getting front-run.
Now let’s talk about the PRICE axis 💰📉
I already started buying when BTC entered the $60,000 zone, even though the time window hasn’t hit yet. Why? Because waiting for the perfect price is how people miss the entire move.
My approach is simple. If price offers value, I start buying. If time hits the historical window, I buy regardless. That single framework removes emotion and noise.
Back in October, when BTC was trading near $114,000, I publicly said I’d be a strong buyer around $60K. People laughed. They said Bitcoin would never come back there. I don’t argue with noise. I stick to the plan.
Now we’re in that zone. The price call played out. But don’t get comfortable yet. The risk of a lower low is still very real.
That’s why I also track NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) 📊🔵
This on-chain indicator has historically marked the true cycle bottoms. It nailed 2018, the COVID crash, and 2022 perfectly.
Right now, we are not in that blue zone yet. Not even close.
Because of that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see BTC trade in the $45K–$50K range by the end of 2026. That’s my ultimate bottom target. That’s where I’d feel comfortable going heavy.
Here’s the plan, clearly and simply:
On the TIME axis, October to November 2026 is a strong buy, regardless of price.
On the PRICE axis, anything below $60,000 is a strong buy, regardless of time.
If either condition is met, I execute daily buys of $500,000. No hesitation. No emotions.
The market is messy right now, but this phase always passes. I’ve studied macro for over 10 years and called multiple major market tops, including the October BTC ATH.
I’ll post the warning before it hits the headlines.
#BTC #CPIWatch #CZAMAonBinanceSquare #USNFPBlowout #TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned