Onyxcoin (XCN) has experienced one of the most uneven price trajectories in the broader crypto market over recent months. While the token is still up approximately 45% on a one-month basis, it has declined nearly 22% over the past three months, highlighting significant volatility beneath the surface.
Most of the recent upside was concentrated within a short time window between December 30 and January 6, when XCN surged rapidly before momentum faded. Since peaking near the $0.013 mark, the price has corrected by almost 48%. At first glance, this appears to be a textbook boom-and-bust scenario driven by aggressive profit-taking.
However, a closer look at on-chain and technical data suggests the correction may be performing a necessary market reset. A large portion of speculative supply has already exited, sell-side pressure is thinning, and price action is beginning to stabilize around a historically significant support zone.
Momentum Diverges as XCN Tests a Dense Cost Basis Support Area
Despite continued price weakness, momentum indicators are beginning to tell a different story. On the daily timeframe, Onyxcoin is forming the early structure of a potential bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI often turns upward before price does when selling pressure starts to exhaust.
This setup has proven relevant for XCN in the past. Between October 10 and December 30, price printed a lower low while RSI formed a higher low — a classic bullish divergence. That signal preceded a sharp rally of more than 200% in less than a week.
A similar structure is now developing between October 10 and January 20. While price continues to drift lower, RSI is holding up better than during the prior selloff. Confirmation has not yet occurred. For the divergence to activate immediately, the next daily candle must hold above approximately $0.0067. Failure to do so could open the door to a deeper retracement, but as long as RSI remains above its October lows, the bullish divergence thesis remains intact.
Downside risk is also becoming increasingly defined. Cost basis data highlights a dense accumulation zone between $0.0060 and $0.0061, where nearly 4.9 billion XCN tokens were acquired. This area represents a level where many holders are close to breakeven, making it a natural region for selling pressure to diminish and demand to emerge.
Momentum is gradually improving as price approaches one of the heaviest historical support clusters.
Speculative Supply Capitulates — Why the Sell-Off May Be Constructive
The most significant development is occurring beneath the surface in holder behavior.
Over the past month, speculative Onyxcoin holders have exited the market aggressively. According to HODL Waves data, wallets holding XCN for one day to one month saw their combined share of circulating supply collapse.
The 1-week to 1-month cohort dropped from 27.56% to just 3.65%
The 1-day to 1-week group fell from 4.69% to approximately 0.80%
Combined, these short-term holders previously controlled more than 32% of the circulating supply. They now hold less than 5%, representing an 85% reduction in speculative supply.
This type of capitulation typically occurs later in a correction cycle, not at the beginning. Momentum-driven traders tend to exit aggressively during drawdowns, crystallizing profits or cutting losses. Once they leave, forced selling pressure often dries up rapidly.
At the same time, longer-term holders are quietly increasing exposure. Wallets holding XCN for 6 to 12 months expanded their share of supply from 6.81% to 8.03% between December 20 and January 19. Even older cohorts, including 2–3 year holders, posted modest increases.
This rotation of supply from reactive traders to conviction-based holders does not guarantee an immediate rally, but it materially reduces the probability of another sharp downside move. In many cases, such rotations mark the transition from distribution to stabilization.
Simply put, much of the damage may already be done.
Key XCN Price Levels That Will Define the Next Phase
With speculative supply largely flushed and momentum stabilizing, price levels will determine what comes next.
$0.0067 is the first critical level. Holding above it confirms RSI divergence and signals buyer defense.
$0.0060 acts as the key downside line, aligning with the lower edge of the cost basis cluster.
On the upside, $0.0075 represents the first meaningful resistance. A move above it would indicate renewed buyer interest.
A broader bullish shift only emerges if XCN can reclaim $0.0096, the level lost in early January that has capped every rebound since.
Until that level is reclaimed, any upside movement should be viewed as corrective rather than trend-defining.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects a personal analytical viewpoint. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
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