Market Structure: The Bearish Channel
Bitcoin is currently respecting a well-defined descending channel on the 15-minute timeframe. After a brief attempt to push above the midline, we are seeing price action retest the upper boundary. Following the prevailing intraday downtrend, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
The Game Plan
I am looking for a Short Entry upon a lower-timeframe rejection near the channel’s upper boundary. I won't front-run the move; I’m waiting for a clear bearish reaction (wick rejection, engulfing candle, or a failed breakout) to confirm the move.
Entry Zone: ~$88,057 (Retest of the upper channel/Blue Line)
Invalidation Point: ~$93,123 (Red Line). A break and candle hold above this level shifts the structure, and I will move to neutral.
Target Levels (The Road Down)
My take-profit targets are stepped based on prior reaction areas and the lower channel support:
🎯 T1: ~$87,003
🎯 T2: ~$86,031
🎯 T3: ~$85,039 (Channel Lower Bound)
Risk Management & Strategy
Trend Confirmation: The trend remains bearish as long as we stay within the channel and below the invalidation zone.
Trade Management: Once T1 is hit, I will move my stop loss to break-even to protect capital.
Patience is Key: I am waiting for the market to come to my level rather than chasing the current price.
Risk Note: Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties. I manage risk by sizing small and adapting to live price action.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) before entering any trade.
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