🔸The National Wealth Fund is Russia’s emergency cash reserve. It is the pool used to cover budget gaps when oil revenues fall or spending explodes. Before the war, this fund held more than $113 billion in liquid assets. Today, it is close to $50 billion. More than half of Russia’s financial buffer is already gone.
🔸At the same time, Russia’s military budget is now larger than its total oil and gas revenue.
🔸For decades, oil paid for everything. Now war costs more than energy earns.
🔸Oil and gas revenue is collapsing:
- Down 22% year-over-year in 2025
- November alone was down 34%
- Discounts on Russian crude keep increasing
- Sanctions are tightening logistics and payments
🔸Meanwhile, the budget deficit has exploded:
🔸Planned: 1.2 trillion rubles
🔸Revised: 5.7 trillion rubles
🔸That is a 5x jump in one year.
🔸This is why Russia is selling its gold inside the NWF.
🔸At current burn rates, economists estimate the liquid part of the fund runs out around mid 2026. That is the real timeline the market should be watching.
🔸When that happens, Russia faces only four choices:
1. Cut war spending
2. Print money → higher inflation
3. Raise taxes → recession risk
4. Increase domestic debt → rising interest costs
🔸None of these are painless. Russia is already isolated. But it is a global commodity risk.
Because Russia still controls:
- 40% of uranium enrichment
- 24% of global wheat exports
- 18% of fertilizers
- 40% of palladium supply
So the danger is not financial contagion. The danger is supply shocks. Russia is running out of money. But it still controls critical resources.
#GrayscaleBNBETFFiling #USIranMarketImpact #ETHMarketWatch #WEFDavos2026 #russia
